Super Thursday Hand: 77 in EP

[durron597]

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I think I either raise or fold it the first time PF, frankly.

I guess you've got a marginal call of this raise the first time around but I probably check/fold when the ace hits. He has to fold half the time here and, well, he's not going to.

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Honestly I think all three lines (call, push, fold) are good. Which one you take depends on the opponent more than anything else.

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I agree, but I didn't really know anything about him. He's been at the table for probably less than an orbit, so my only read was the fact that he hadn't been calling/raising every hand or anything silly like that, so he was somewhere between "fishy-but-not-insane" and "the best poker player in the history of the game".

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Then I would fold. You are either a small favorite or a big dog and it's not worth the risk against an opponent you don't know whether they're raising light.

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I still don't understand how calling is a good idea unless I'm planning to push any flop.

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It isn't. When I said call I meant call/push.

[adanthar]

You also get some overpair value (not much but some) plus the times you flop something like 865, etc.

Anyway, it's an ATx flop. Just think about his hand range; he's already flopped his ace over 50%, plus the times he makes a read with queens. Check/fold.

[cferejohn]

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You also get some overpair value (not much but some) plus the times you flop something like 865, etc.

Anyway, it's an ATx flop. Just think about his hand range; he's already flopped his ace over 50%, plus the times he makes a read with queens. Check/fold.

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He could (and, in point of fact, did) have a pocket pair, so flopping an overpair wouldn't help, and even flopping an open-ender leaves me as a dog. I think trying to put him on a specific hand (he has an ace or he doesn't have an ace here) is futile, especially online. Again, if I am planning to fold most flops, I should have folded preflop (which is now starting to seem was the right thing to do).

[Jax_Grinder]

With 500 in the pot, the raise to 600 doesnt impress me all that much vis-a-vis Villain holding AK/AQ. I kinda like the play, gambling that he is not holding the A and is likely to fold everything else. No way he folds to a reraise from you PF so the AI on the flop is your best chance to take down the pot and a commanding lead. Lose it and your average. I hate any play that allows him to take the lead, so push is best.

[woodguy]

Chris,

I like your line after his PF raise, very creative. I don't use the SnG enough, and this is a good spot.

You are right that the only FE you are going to have against that stack size is post flop, you just got unlucky.

What I don't undertand fully was your plan with the PF limp.

What was your plan?

Regards,
Woodguy

[adanthar]

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He could (and, in point of fact, did) have a pocket pair, so flopping an overpair wouldn't help, and even flopping an open-ender leaves me as a dog. I think trying to put him on a specific hand (he has an ace or he doesn't have an ace here) is futile, especially online. Again, if I am planning to fold most flops, I should have folded preflop (which is now starting to seem was the right thing to do).

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With 10xBB, and the big stack having limped in, let's give him the typical AA-99, AK-AJ range. You can modify it down a fair bit without changing these numbers; they're just an example, but it should give you an idea.

With that range he has a big ace a little over 50% and pairs the rest of the time. If you flop an overpair/draw, sometimes you'll push and he'll have to fold his AK or, at least, you'll have 6 or 10 outs. So calling for a set or pair+draw/overpair type flop makes sense given implied odds.

Once you get here, though, the calculation is straightforward. Over half the time, he has an ace, and some of the rest, he will call anyway. You are betting 1400 to win 1500. Is this gonna work enough? No? OK, check/fold.