WSOP Hachem JJ Hand

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Durron - I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this one! :-)

You are essentially arguing that it is more important to win the chips than it is to knock out the short stack. I am arguing that is is more important to knock out the short stack than win the pot.

I want to eliminate the SS at all costs. If I could GIVE danneman the pot and eliminate the Tex, I would in a second!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you are willing to sacrifice what amounts to probably about a million bucks (ballpark) in $EV just to guarantee that you don't bust in third when you have a substantial chip lead. Yes, it's THAT not close.

I bet you're one of those guys that folds his way into small money in every tournament and busts shortly afterwards.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... clearly the most +EV move is to get Tex Barch out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. Expected Value in the long run is that the jacks are the best hand and betting them will win the most.

There is no evidence that Hachem is a better player than Dannenmann.

What if ... has nothing to do with either players range of hands. I do not know what happened in the hand. Hachem is ahead against both players range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tournament EV and Cash game EV are two different things. Usually they are the same, but in this case they are not. This is actually an interesting question because there is obviously a point where the "implied collusion" play goes from +EV to -EV (Tourney EV that is). This question is closer than I first thought. Out of the two "bad" outcomes that can arise for Hachem this hand.

1. Barch wins main pot (all three approx. even in chips)
2. Dannenman wins main pot, Barch eliminated. Hachem heads up down 2-1 in chips.
3. Hachem wins main pot, Barch eliminated (heads up with 2-1 chip lead).

The gap in tourney EV between outcomes 1 and 2 is MUCH greater than the gap between 2 and 3. So I believe the checkdown is the best play to maximize the chance that outcome 1 doesn't happen. If this were a cash game, outcome 1 would be no worse than outcome 2 so clearly betting would be the correct play. Also, like I said earlier, if there were two more players left, the chips would be more important than the player being eliminated.

[Huskiez]

So because it seemed we could go in circles ad infinitum, I decided to use Pokerstove, put in some hand ranges, and figure out Hachem’s equity in each situation.

I used the following ranges:

Barch: 66+, A2s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo
Dannenmann: 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+, KJo+

I gave Dannenmann a looser range for two reasons:
1. He is not as tight as Barch
2. He probably wants to knock out another player like many of you are advocating and is hoping Hachem will call and they can check it down.

Part One: Hachem softplays his JJ.

From Pokerstove, E(H) = .459, E(D) = .256, E(B) = .284.

.459 of the time, H has 39.995m chips, D has 16.35m.
.256 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 33.3m.
.284 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 16.35m, B has 16.95m.

I used the following model to calculate $EV:
Guaranteed money + (% of chips in play * difference of guaranteed prize from first prize).

For example, if H wins this pot, then
$EV(H) = 4.25m + (39.995/56.345 * 3.25m) = 6.56m.

If B wins this pot, then
$EV(H) = 2.5m + (23.045/56.345 * 5m) = 4.54m.

If D wins the pot, then
$EV(H) = 4.25m + (23.045/56.345 * 3.25m) = 5.58m.

Then overall, when Hachem decides to softplay,
$EV(H) = .459 * 6.56m + .284 * 4.54m + .256 * 5.58m = 5.729m.

OK, one part done.

Part 2: Hachem plays aggressively

Now let’s assume Hachem reraises all in. For Dannenmann to call, he will need a premium hand. Let’s say he would call with the following hands: AA, KK, QQ, and AK.

For the hand range given, he will have
QQ+, AK 34 ways (6*3 + 16)
55-JJ, A2s+ (-AKs), KTs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+ (-AKo), KJo+ 185 ways (6*6 + 1 + 4*16 + 12*7)

Or a premium hand 34/219 times, or 15.5% of the time.

First, let’s look at when he does not have one of those hands and folds. Then Hachem is heads up against Barch. In this case, E(H) = .612, E(B) = .389.

.612 of the time, H has 39.995m chips, D has 16.35m.
.389 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 16.35m, B has 16.95m.

$EV(H) = 5.781m.

Now what about when Dannenmann does have a premium hand?

For the main pot, E(H) = .306, E(D) = .479, E(B) = .215.
For the side pot, E(H) = .362, E(D) = .638.

.479 of the time, H has 6.695m chips, D has 49.65m.
.306 of the time, H has 56.345m.
.078 of the time (when Barch wins, and Hachem wins the side pot), H has 39.395m, B has 16.95m.
.137 of the time (when Barch wins, and Dannenmann wins the side pot), H has 6.695m, D has 32.7m, B has 16.95m.

$EV(H) = 5.453m.

So then overall, when Hachem decides to play aggressively preflop,
$EV(H) = .845 * 5.781m + .155 * 5.453m = 5.729m.

In other words, this is way too close to call.

I will admit that I was very surprised when the $EV for playing aggressively wasn’t definitively higher.

Keep in mind I am a cash game player, so I don’t really know whether the $EV model I used was the best.

Any thoughts or reactions to my calculations would be appreciated. But please try to minimize the number of “Dude, Dannenmann is NOT calling A2s there. He’s not an idiot.” I guess the most controversial point will be whether he calls AK and QQ. He called an all in against Black with AK earlier, but I realize that wasn’t a dry side pot. I also realize that Barch isn't going to push A6s there every time. But keep in mind that he may not push AA there every time and instead try to win a big pot by trapping or by raising less than all in preflop.

Of course, this doesn't put any light on the postflop play, but that's for another day.

[locutus2002]

No, this is the final table of the WSOP. Show me that cooperating is going to win more money.

It depends substantially on Dannenmann's range of hands to call the push. I estimate that it costs Hachem $2000 in $EV for each hand that Dannenmann has in his range above 80 hands (roughly 99-AA,AK,AQ,KQs,AJs). So if Dannenmann's range is more speculative (which I think it is) Hachem gives up:
$200,000 for a moderate range
$400,000 for a loose range

His EV is about $5.5M so Hachem gives up about ~3.5% to 7% in $EV.

Certainly you wouldn't do this in a cash game (if I ever played one)
Nor would you do this in a SNG

Can you give up 3.5% to 7% EV to have a better chance to fold up a notch in the WSOP? Very player dependent. But not a winning move.

Anyone care to see the calculations PM me they are complicated.

My basic assumptions are:

$EV using ICM
Dannenmann only calls push with AA-QQ.
Barch's Pushing range is { AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Barch's average hand contains 1 card that is an ace,king, or queen.

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]

My basic assumptions are:

$EV using ICM
Dannenmann only calls push with AA-QQ.
Barch's Pushing range is { AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Barch's average hand contains 1 card that is an ace,king, or queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well...apparnatly Barch's range is much more, since the move was made with A6o...So....

[locutus2002]

its much more dependent on Dannenmann's range to call the PF push.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
THIS IS FUNDEMENTAL TOURNEMENT POKER - When a short stack is all in, anyone else in the hand MUST CHECK IT DOWN, unless you have the stone cold nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]


it depends on when this is happeneing, people expect it to happen any time there is a short stack alline. In this particular situation, there were MILLIONS of dollars on the line, so whatever the course of actino to get Barch out is the best way. But people get in a hissy fit all the time online when someone doesnt check it down everytime, and it's used way too much.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
THIS IS FUNDEMENTAL TOURNEMENT POKER - When a short stack is all in anyone else in the hand MUST CHECK IT DOWN, unless you have the stone cold nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

i seriously thought you were being sarcastic here. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but then you weren't [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
THIS IS FUNDEMENTAL TOURNEMENT POKER - When a short stack is all in, anyone else in the hand MUST CHECK IT DOWN, unless you have the stone cold nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Normally checking it down makes sense. But the part about needing the stone cold buts is silly. There was 15M in the pot. If Hachem has the best hand and Dannenmann has live overcards getting him out is a very big deal when more than 1/4th of all the chips in play are sitting out there...even if doing so somehow keeps the short stack alive.

[gergery]

Paul Philliips says bet it, baby , bet it.

-g