Busted at Binions

[oaktoon]

"A Cautionary Tale about Poker Gods, Infintesimal Odds and the Need for a Thick Skin"

Note to readers: this is kind of long. But I think you'll find it entertaining in its morbidness. It is not a bad beat story though there are a couple, but rather a "bad situation" story-- how luck and fate can intervene in this game we love and keep a good man down. And how we must all develop a very thick skin to play this game.

This story begins and essentially ends with two stories about Kings. (The final KK indignities set up the hero's ultimate demise) In the middle hero developed an incredible jinx with the hand that would culminate in Vegas. But the moral of the story is simple: tens of thousands-- perhaps hundreds of thousands of people-- are now playing hundreds of poker hands a day; thousands a week; tens of thousands a month, etc.

Needless to say with that volume if it can happen it will. This is a story about how it kept happening and how one had better prepare for the worst no matter what level you choose to attempt to succeed at NLHE.

The First Kings Bust

A buddy in my Midwest home town organized a "Poker Superstars" competition this fall, patterned after the one we see on FSN. 18 players; 6 handed table; 4 preliminary matches leading to a semifinal of 12 and then a final table of 6. The prelims played out over a 5 week period on Monday evenings.

Note to any interested in attempting this format: make sure you have 18 (or 12 or 24) players committed to the process and showing up when they are supposed to. You'll soon see why.

You see in one of the early weeks someone didn't show. Legend has it that he fell asleep with a popsicle in his mouth. But the tournament director decided to simply blind him down, rather than disqualifying him that week or blinding him every hand. Popsicle Boy finished 4th out of 6th that night. And a bad precedent had been set.

So on penultimate Monday, when Hero played his final match, not one but two no-shows occurred. TD announced he would be consistent with the previous case and simply blind them down. Now of the 4 "real" players that night, two had already garnered enough points to qualify for the next round, and a third had another match so was not in desperate shape. But Hero-- well he simply needed to finish 5th and his ticket was punched.

After some light bantering about whether or not Hero should even play a hand, the first two rounds ensued and Hero won no hands. Lost blinds, a call of the BB, and one raise which was immediately reraised. And now the true predicament dawned on Hero. To play another hand against three opponents who were fast accumulating chips from me and the two "phantom" opponents would be a huge risk. One more defeat and then I get shortstacked and must play modified Dan Harrington "low M" strategy against at least two opponents who have nothing to lose by calling and everything to gain from knocking a pretty good player out of the competition.

But Hero "trailed" the two ghosts, so he had to win some hand to get ahead of their stacks. A push with AK, and a call from the BB with 10-8 that produced a 10 on the flop achieved that, but they came late enough that there was no longer any realistic hope of catching any of the other three actual players.

Hero therefore had to hope that one would bust the other, and when Stack #3 was all-in on a flush draw, that hope rose, only to be dashed by a diamond on the river. (1 in 5 shot-- remember those odds)

And now hero faced another dread thought-- depending on when the final levels of blind raised before he and the two ghosts ran out of chips, the lead could evaporate as hero could be forced to post two blinds before either ghost posted one. (One ghost was directly to my left; the other another two spots over)

So hero decided and announced to table that he would play AA-- and the push would indicate that. TDirector said "what about kings"? You should play them, too" When the player who stood to be eliminated if my perverse strategy worked popped up from his online games downstairs (he had played his last superstar match earlier that evening) and was apprised of the situation, well he began to goad hero into playing a hand or two as well.

All in good fun, and hero decided (silently): "OK, I'll give it the next 8-10 hands. If I don't get AA or KK by then, then I'll simply hunker down and if I need to stall so that the blinds don't hit me before the ghosts I can do it."

Odds of AA or KK coming in 10 hands-- about 1 in 12. Times the 1 in 5 on the flush draw on the river. Keeping track?

Two hands later: Bingo-- KK. Hero pushes, called by 75 spades-- I believe it's a 80-20 situation. Spade on flop and then runner-runner and hero is toast. 1 in 240 shot-- sure, the kings could have been called by a different hand, and busted, but the bottom line is that 239 other times hero would have advanced to next round.

In meantime shortly thereafter hero gets busted in a couple of live tournaments with KK by AK suited (runner-runner flush again) and after a rag flop that unfortunately created a set of dueces (yes, the 22 called a huge pre-flop bet).

And goes to vegas to play in, first, a Wynn's daily tourney. Is very short-stacked at the first break-- can only survive one more round. Wakes up to.. what else??.. KK sitting next to dealer. Goes all-in-- asked for chip count by player at other side of table-- dealer counts out chips and then after announcing the total, mucks every hand to his left including, since actual chips have been my protector, the KK sitting an inch in front of the rail. (And I would have been called by 10-9, who hit two 9s on the flop, so it did not hurt my remote tournament chances) But the indignity of having KK mucked by a dealer at Wynn's remained.

And that indignity only grew later than evening in a cash game when, after an hour of solid play that left hero up nearly $200, he woke up to... KK. Made sizable raise, and was called. Mental note said "I was just called by A-something". Flop came all clubs, and hero had Kc. Made big bet, was reraised and simply could not process fact that other player had Ax suited, and the suit was clubs. Maybe the ace, but not both!! Pushed, busted. (Odds of this one: 1 in 3 that the caller would have suited card-- I assume they are played a bit more against a raise than the 12-51 odds would indicate); probably only 1 in 2 that i get called period; then of course it's 1 in 4.8 x 1 in 5.2 x 1 in 5.5 to creat a flush on the flop. So overall it's about 1 in 800 that the chain of events that busted me would occur. He had A10 suited. 799 other times I either win hand easily or face a hand such as an ace on the flop that I can walk away from)

And then the conclusion a day later.

Binion's Sunday night tourney. Two tables left-- 13 players. Hero is chip leader but not dominant. Knows it would be good to build stack before final table.

Short stack goes all-in in front of him (middle position)-- hero has JJ. Call. Why not big raise for isolation? One more big stack directly to my left-- want to be able to bail out after flop if necessary. Second short stack calls after some thought-- clearly hoping for overcards. Wish granted when original raiser turns over 44 and other shortstack has KQ. Q hits on turn.

Then a few minutes later another shors stack pushes. Hero has observed this player lose a lot of chips in last hour, and correctly reasons he's on a comparatively weak hand (10d9d. it turns out). hero on Button with AdJd, calls. Big blind wakes up to... what else? KK-- and goes over the top. Hero folds (about one-third of chips were in calling the original bettor)-- short stack hits straight to win hand. (irony-- if short stack doesnt push-- and hero and KK tussle, board is straight and would have been chop)

Now hero is somewhat weaker, and after losing one round blinds even more still. Wakes up to 44 on button with no limpers, makes big raise. BB (very big stack calls). Flop comes QQ5 and hero pushes-- BB has AJ and calls. 10 on turn increasing the counterfeit possibilities and then the A on river. Hero is busted.

My point being the following-- incidents like the ones depicted in this account happen all the time. (Even the muck of an all-in KK bet at Wynn's!) We play thousands of hands. But I've learned that occasionally they happen in sequence-- one amazing bustout follows another, and leads to another, etc. I challenge anyone to match this round of fate/luck-- but also observe that it'll happen to you, too. Pick yourself up and go on to the next one and hope that someday things will even out.