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#1
10-06-2002, 04:54 AM
 lorinda Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: England Posts: 2,478
Children

A simpler version of Mike's post, and one I had forgotten until he posted his...
My friend has two children, and I'll tell you that one of them is a boy.
What is the probability that the other one is a boy too?

#2
10-06-2002, 05:28 AM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Children

1/3
#3
10-06-2002, 10:41 AM
 Mike Haven Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Northern Ireland Posts: 2,288
Re: Children

i agree with bruce, assuming that the parents don't suffer from prosiarmageddon syndrome of course

the normal possibilities are BG, BB, GB or GG, so if you take out GG because of your friend's statement then there is a one in three chance of the children being BB
#4
10-06-2002, 11:06 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Children

1/2. The sex of the first child has no bearring on the sex of the second child. They are independent events.
#5
10-06-2002, 11:14 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Children

If she had said that the first one born was a boy, then your answer would be correct.
#6
10-07-2002, 02:06 AM
 Ed Miller Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Writing \"Small Stakes Hold \'Em\" Posts: 4,548
Re: Children

1/3
#7
10-08-2002, 04:51 AM
 Mason Malmuth Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Nevada Posts: 1,831
Re: Children

There are four possible ways there can be two children. They are:

BB
BG
GB
GG

Notice that the GG case cannot exist since one child must be a boy. This leaves us with only three acceptable cases. Two of those produce girls as the companion. Only BB meets the criterion. So the probability is 1/3. [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]
MM
#8
10-08-2002, 04:53 AM
 Mason Malmuth Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Nevada Posts: 1,831
Re: Children

What a great picture. I bet in real life you don't look that good.

MM
#9
10-08-2002, 09:09 AM
 Mike Haven Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Northern Ireland Posts: 2,288
Re: Children

[img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img] you called my bluff

you are very kind, but, actually, i have to admit ...

it's not really me!!

i'm not an art expert by any means, but i think it is called the "mona lisa" - a famous painting of a fifteenth century bathing beauty
#10
10-08-2002, 07:18 PM
 DJA Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 209
Re: Children

The answer is 0%. No one says, "I have a boy." when they have 2 boys.

[img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

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