Deep thinking hand

[Jim Morgan]

Assuming that your read is correct... He has a good hand, but a QJ is unlikely since you believe he has Aces, why would you check the turn, if you know he fears a check-raise. You give him infinite odds to catch up. All you get in return is a chance to catch a bluff. If he has AAxx with clubs, he is probably not betting unless he makes his flush or catches an Ace. Why not pot bet the turn and take it down now. If he has the straight and a redraw, can you honestly say you could fold the turn pot bet that is quite likely to come? You seem to be risking an 80-90 dollar pot to win 125 or so and I jsut dont see that you can count on him betting a weaker hand AND paying you off all that often

I am even confused by the narrow ranges of hands you describe. And to be quite honest, it is this sort of situation that I have the most difficulty understanding in pot limit O8 Won't the pre-flop raiser bet at MANY pots in this spot. If he is only going to be called with 2 pair or better, it seems he should bet the pot, or perhaps less, with EVERY hand. Won't the caller have a fairly wide range of hands, most of which either beat AA or have a good draw to do so. It really seems like this kind of situation, a high flop in a high low game, has to become a contest of wills as much or more so than a contest of cards. Is the callers positional disadvantage so great the he simply cannot win a "pissing contest" and that he must therefore only contest the pot when he hits it fairly solidly?

Jim M

[Ribbo]

Because I know the player very well, the range of hands he would follow through with on the flop is not that great given that I would never bet out on the flop, only ever check raise. This is not a situation that comes up too often, but against players you have played for over 2 years on a regular, often daily basis, you have to occasionally throw them a curveball. Let's say he is now aware that I am capable of checking the nuts to him 3 times. If at some point in the future I establish that by the river, having checked 3 times to him, that he does not have the nuts, I may again check raise any bet and he might have a flashback to the day i stung him for $125 on the river and fold. Also by checking this way, it can very well pay itself back in free cards when out of position in future.
On the turn I gave him a free 20% chance of hitting the river. This was worth $17 to him. I would wager that should the river come a blank, it is worth more than $17 to check to him again and call a bet. If I pot the turn, he will not call, although most players will. As I have pointed out on previous occasions though, sometimes your opponents have no chance whatsoever of winning, and any aggression from you causes them to fold. If you allow them to keep betting , sometimes it's the only way of winning money, plus it makes you look clever when it pays off......