NBA picks

[20Five]

I like the under here too.. This line is much lower then when these team usually match up in the past, but not quite low enough in my eyes.

Dallas has much more focus on defense under Avery Johnson, along with the injuries on the Sacramento side of the ball, I think they easily keep Sac well below their 25th best 99.2 a game..

All the trends are pointing to an Over, going to give the Under a play.

I'll play it for a unit.. GL!

[arardor]

Talk about slim margins.

1-0 +1 unit

13 - 5 YTD +17 Units - vig

[ImNew]

May I ask where you get the information regarding FG%*Assists*TOs forced-FG% allowed*assists allowed*Tos?

[arardor]

I use www.nba.com. It appears to be updated day by day there. I go to the preview of each game and for each team there is a link to the "stats".

[arardor]

Well with this many games it was bound to produce some action. The numbers didn't disappoint.

2 games are going to be 2 units

Chi/Mem over 182 - I have the game closer to 190.
LAC/CHAR over 187 - I have this at 196.

1 unit for the rest.

DAL/Seat under 205
Wash/Phoe under 209 - Phoenix is a damn good team. They can light it up but plays defense. Their stats have the widest margin in terms of how they score and play defense.
Tor/SAS over 189 - this is border line. Only a 4 point difference.

[bills217]

With you on LAC/Bobcats, but big on the other side of Bulls/Grizz.

This is where purely statistical systems fall short IMO. Memphis dictates the pace of their games. They've been Under 9 of their last 10 games (the one Over was double-OT against Detroit), and of those 9, the HIGHEST total was 182 (vs. Phoenix). Most of the opening lines were in the 170's.

Also, if you look at the Bulls schedule, they have played a ton of Over teams...their total #'s are inflated. They are getting too much respect as an Over team here...Suns-Grizz opener was only 186.

Then again, your picks have faired much better than mine, so what do I know? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[20Five]

I think im going to stay away from both.. i think i agree with bills about memphis though.. under generators at home

i hate fridays so many games to look at!!

good luck tonight guys [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[arardor]

There is obviously something to be said for your thoughts. I have a few thoughts on how to adjust but am not going to panic just yet. Horrible night but I honestly didn't think I could continue at my early clip. My goal is not to produce a 70% winning system rather a means to give myself an educated guess.

1-4 -5 units - vig

14-9 YTD +12 units - vig.

Any thoughts on adjustments. My first thought is to take the average of each team over the last 5 games to get my base number instead of season stats.

Any feedback is appreciated.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts on adjustments. My first thought is to take the average of each team over the last 5 games to get my base number instead of season stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your intent is good, in that you want to get a feel for how the team is playing in its more recent games, but that still depends on the schedule. The #'s will be different if the last 5 games were against all Over teams or all Under teams...maybe you could factor the schedule in somehow? Then it gets complicated.

Frankly, your current system is having some success, I'd stick with it for now to give you some time to see how it does, and to give you a better idea of exactly how/why/if it needs to be tweaked.

[arardor]

Just one play today.

Mia/LAL under 195 1 unit

I actually have this way under but am going to think emotions will be high.

Good luck.