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#41
11-20-2005, 02:14 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that PF argument is a red herring. I hate the river 3bet, and am shocked that Rob said you played this fine. Your oppo either: 1) has a high PP 2) has a PP lower than tens 3) is bluffing In case 3) your 3bet has no value. In case 2) your 3bet has value only if this guy sucks. In case 1) you're throwing away money. I really don't get it. [/ QUOTE ] most nutty lags aren't folding ace high if they've checkraised with it on the river, fwiw. So if he's doing something like that 3) is possible. I also seriously think that he might have a straight here. That all said, calling the river looks best, and that's the only street I have any qualms about. If we were in MP, it's another story. On the button, it's a clear play imo. 
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#42
11-20-2005, 02:20 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
most nutty lags aren't folding ace high if they've checkraised with it on the river, fwiw. [/ QUOTE ] how do the numbers jason gave imply nutty LAG?
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#44
11-20-2005, 02:35 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG. [/ QUOTE ] Many LAGs understand position. This LAG doesn't seem that insane so especially since he opened from UTG I'd give him some respect. He only raises ~3% more hands than I do preflop. AdTd doesn't beat [censored] which I open with from UTG. I actually think I fold here
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#45
11-20-2005, 02:37 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that PF argument is a red herring. I hate the river 3bet, and am shocked that Rob said you played this fine. Your oppo either: 1) has a high PP 2) has a PP lower than tens 3) is bluffing In case 3) your 3bet has no value. In case 2) your 3bet has value only if this guy sucks. In case 1) you're throwing away money. I really don't get it. [/ QUOTE ] I think there definitely needs to be a fourth option of him having a 9, which makes me like the river 3 bet a lot more. I make this play with A10s against lags a decent amount of times and I don't have a problem with it at all. Obviously player dependent, but this guy seems fine to do it against. River is fine. Idiots try to make moves with crap and will still call with crap. He will call with as little as A high at times, though I agree this is a stretch given the numbers. Still we have lower PP, 9s and 10s that are doing this and only a bigger PP and a 7 that we are losing too which I don't think is likely given the slow down on the turn.
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#46
11-20-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG. [/ QUOTE ] Many LAGs understand position. This LAG doesn't seem that insane so especially since he opened from UTG I'd give him some respect. He only raises ~3% more hands than I do preflop. AdTd doesn't beat [censored] which I open with from UTG. I actually think I fold here [/ QUOTE ] I don't think LAGs understand position at all. Otherwise their stats would not be what they are. 31/16 is a large range which is much larger than your 18/13 stats or whatever they are.
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#47
11-20-2005, 02:45 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
I think there definitely needs to be a fourth option of him having a 9, which makes me like the river 3 bet a lot more. [/ QUOTE ] Even if I grant you A9s, and I think it's a slight stretch, that only adds 3 combos to hands we have value against. We're chopping with another T, so no value there. Basically, do you think that he has a lower PP or 9 MORE often than he has a higher PP? Saying there is a chance he will call here with A high is absurd based on these numbers.
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#48
11-20-2005, 03:56 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
Saying there is a chance he will call here with A high is absurd based on these numbers. [/ QUOTE ] It's not the numbers, but rather OP's having firmly established an aggro image in villain's eyes, which opens up villain's calling range here. Not that this necessarily makes the raise correct, just that this isn't "some" LAG. It's a specific LAG who is inherently distrustful of OP.
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#49
11-20-2005, 03:58 AM
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Is this a joke?
I don't frequent this forum much, so maybe theres some inside joke going over my head because I can't imagine there being so many 2+2ers who think this hand was well played.
The preflop raise was bad. Not even close. 16% PFR is loose, but its not like 30% or 50% looseness You are way behind him with the majority of hands he could be raising with. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ). You will rarely be ahead with when he holds (Ax, KT, QT, JT) and you are about a coinflip to the rest of his hands (KQ, KJ, 99-xx, etc). Anyway, isolating an opponent in an empty pot with what looks to be a dominated or behind hand is BAD. Cold calling a raise here is even worse than raising. Folding is your only play. Aside from a flush or a couple of tens, I don't know what you're hoping to flop in this situation. If an Ace does come, hes not going to be very agressive with his KK-QQ-JJ-TT etc, and hes going to cost you a lot with his AK, AQ, AJ. This is a bad flop for you. It did not improve your hand any. If you were already behind before the flop, you're further behind now. If you were ahead, youre still only slightly ahead and could be behind. A hand you dominated preflop like JT, now has 7 outs, youre about drawing dead to A7, and only have three outs to A9. If he only has a small pair (smaller then 7's), then you have a good 6 outs, plus additional outs when the board pairs again and counterfeits him, this is your best situation against his possible holdings. Given that you inflated the pot early and its now 8.5 bets, calling is ok. What you are really hoping to see is an 8 or a diamond to give you a strong backdoor draw. I agree with the turn raise, but probably for different reasons. The ten is a decent card for you at best. You might be ahead, but a hand that you actually beat preflop and were hoping you were against, like QJ or KQ, has 14 outs now. I would estimate, that with the combination of times you are dominated or beaten already by legit hands, you only have around 40% equity in this pot. Folding is not an option, so I like raising here, not for value, but for a free showdown, or to gain an extra bet the times when I river another ten or an Ace (because I now reverse dominate any of his AK, AQ, AJ holdings). At least there are no backdoor flushes to make things worse for you. Three betting this river after being check raised is easily the worst and most expensive mistake in this entire hand. After raising the turn, either call if he bets, or check behind on almost any card. A weaker ten or mid pair are the only hands you could bet for value. The 7 eliminates the weaker ten, so now you are only value betting against 88, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22 assuming he would even call with one of those hands. The threat of a checkraise kills any value period. There is no reason to bet this river.
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#50
11-20-2005, 04:11 AM
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Re: ATs against a LAG
[ QUOTE ]
31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG. I 3-bet A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] otb. He calls. The flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He bets and I call. The turn is T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He bets and I raise. The river is 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He checks, I bet, he raises, I 3-bet [/ QUOTE ] why? is he really folding a better hand? i doubt it.
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