I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[Josh W]

5 handed 30-60, and I have a LAG image.

I raise QJ UTG. Cutoff calls and BB calls. Threeway action. Flop comes QJT, with the Q and T of clubs. BB checks, I bet. CO and BB both call. Hmmmmm.

Turn is Jc, making the board (QJTc)Jx.

BB checks, and I check, somewhat confident that CO will bet here. But, dagnabit, he checks behind. Oh well.

River is the 2c, putting four clubs up there.

BB bets out. I raise. CO threebets!!

now, the BB caps it!!!!!

I'm getting about 7.5:1 to call the last two bets, with no fear of future raises. I call because I think I'm probably ahead more than 13% of the time.

But I was confused. See, when the BB bet out, and I raised, then the CO threebet, well, then the CO HAD to have the Ac, and even then it's an iffy raise.

WHen the BB capped it, I knew he didn't have a 'flush', though he may have had a straight flush. I just couldn't see him having a fullhouse. See, if he had two pair on the flop, I think he'd play it faster to maybe use me as leverage to force out a draw (like AT or A8 or some such). maybe he flopped a set, but I think he'd threebet TT or QQ preflop, and if not, I again think he'd protect it on the flop.

So, I really thought he may have had 89c or K9c, slowplaying on the flop. So, yeah. I called, but I really didn't like it. In retrospect, I'm not sure I'm even ahead 13% of the time there (with my second-nut-full-house).

Comments?

Josh

[Joe826]

you're right, that's interesting action.. but if you're even considering folding..

there is precisely one hand that beats you, right?

[Josh W]

AKc
K9c
98c
QQ

all beat me. They seem somewhat unlikely given the preflop/flop action. But it also gets tricky to put my opponents on other hands, as well.

I didn't think about folding, because I thought I was probably ahead more than 13% of the time. But in retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have thought about folding.

Josh

come on, josh. you've got those numbers way jumbled. you're ahead - way ahead.

[Josh W]

what do you put my opponents on then?

And, while I concede that I may be ahead, anything you say my opponents can have, I'll tell you why they can't have them (and this includes hands that beat me).

Josh

[Tranvisor]

The only thing I can think of is that the BB has JT for a slightly smaller boat and the CO has the Ac. K9c and 98c make sense but if you lose to a str flush, oh well. QQ and TT just don't make any sense at all preflop. Perhaps BB was waiting til the turn to check raise with his two pair (because of your LAG image he thought his hand was easily most likely good on the flop) and the action got checked behind him

[Josh W]

That's certainly a reasonable assesment. The problems are:

1.) Would the BB slowplay bottom two on a draw intensive board when he has a LAG to use as leverage with/against?

2.) Would the Ac threebet on the river when it's FAR from the nuts against two other opponents?

These both seem somewhat unlikely, albeit not impossible.

Josh

[daryn]

i don't know what kind of games you play in, but just because there's a pair on board, doesn't mean people won't cap the river w/ the Ac.

[TiK]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know what kind of games you play in, but just because there's a pair on board, doesn't mean people won't cap the river w/ the Ac.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say you're up against Ac and JT. If they had a sf, well then, god bless 'em, but you're ahead most of the time here.

[andyfox]

"I have a LAG image"

-Must be those "bottom pair, bottom kicker" announcements.

Often enough, I find that when there's river action that says I can't possibly have the best hand, it's that my opponent(s) has/have fallen in love with his/heir hand; so if I have a big full house, dammit, I'm calling down. Hell, who knows, BB might have taken one off on the flop with pocket deuces. Maybe he decided to slowplay the other Q-J on the flop, or J-T, waiting to see what the turn brought.

Psychologically, it' hard to throw that hand away. That is, had the situation been similar, but your hand lower, it would have been easier, you know?