Advice on Moving Beyond 30/60 Online - Page 8

hockey1 · #71 08-02-2005, 02:20 PM

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as far as i'm concerned nobody has played NEARLY enough hands to determine their winrate. either you're winning or you're losing.

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On it's face this doesn't make any sense. You sound like you're suggesting there's no meaningful difference between someone who has a winrate of 3.4BB/100 after 29K hands and someone who has a winrate of 0.5BB/100 after 29K hands (a difference of 2.9BB/100); but at the same time that a winrate of 0.5BB/100 is enough to indicate a winning player and -0.5BB/100 (a difference of 1.0 BB/100) is enough to indicate a losing player.

If on the other hand your point is that we can't know precisely whether hero's "real" winrate is 3.4 or 3.2 BB/100 then I think you're just quibbling. Although it's possible to run ridiculously well over 29,000 hands and have a seriously inflated winrate, I don't believe for a second that in the vast majority of cases 50K or so hands isn't enough to get a decent bead (let's say within 0.5BB/100 98+% of the time) on where one stands as a player. [Statisticians among us please correct me if I'm wrong] Unless he's the luckiest SOB on the face of the planet, hero's gotta be doing something very right to be winning 3.4BB/100 over 29K. Maybe he's "really" only a 2.5BB/100 player, but c'mon, are you really suggesting that we just ignore the winrate altogether and say he's no better and no worse than any other winning player?

Paxosmotic · #72 08-02-2005, 02:21 PM

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If the play in the games beyond 30/60 is really that much stronger, is there anything that people who frequent those limits would recommend before moving to those limits? Is there something we could be studying or learning more about that would improve our game at these limits?

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Go find and play in a couple tough 30/60 short games. (in other words use backwards game selection...find tables with just good players).

Get good at 5 handed and less.

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That's actually something I had thought of, playing the tough tables at a limit before moving up. Glad to see I was on the right page.

baronzeus · #73 08-02-2005, 02:24 PM

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If the play in the games beyond 30/60 is really that much stronger, is there anything that people who frequent those limits would recommend before moving to those limits? Is there something we could be studying or learning more about that would improve our game at these limits?

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Go find and play in a couple tough 30/60 short games. (in other words use backwards game selection...find tables with just good players).

Get good at 5 handed and less.

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What kind of bankroll would I need for < 5 handed 30/60? 30K? 40K?

hockey1 · #74 08-02-2005, 02:28 PM

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how bout this, im never skeptical of his bb/100 stats because i dont care.

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This is so weird I don't even know how to respond. You don't care? Please explain. I think it's fair to say that the purpose of these forums is to improve our games -- i.e., win as much as possible. The whole point is to maximize winrate (or overall $$ if you're willing to sacrifice "rate" for gross). But to say you don't care blows my mind. Does that mean that as long as you win you don't care whether it's $100 or $1,000,000? That as long as you "know" what the right play is it doesn't matter if you actually make that play or not? What are you talking about?

BB/100 (over a reasonable number of hands) is a very good, if not the best, measure of how good a player you are. That is, whether you play well. That is, whether you know what you're doing. That is, whether you do the right thing. The "right" thing is the thing that wins the most $$. Saying you don't care about winrate is like saying you don't care whether you play well or not, in which case why should anybody listen to anything you have to say?

bicyclekick · #75 08-02-2005, 02:31 PM

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What kind of bankroll would I need for < 5 handed 30/60? 30K? 40K?

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I don't know about numbers...just be ready for some huge swings in one day. You'd probably never bust if you had 30k if you truly are a winning player I would think. What's more important than bankroll is how you handle the swings...your emotional bankroll...cause you're going to get your ass handed to you a lot...just because of the nature of an aggressive short handed game.

bobbyi · #76 08-02-2005, 02:32 PM

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I think it's fair to say that the purpose of these forums is to improve our games -- i.e., win as much as possible. The whole point is to maximize winrate (or overall $$ if you're willing to sacrifice "rate" for gross).

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I don't agree that that has to be "the whole point". Different people can come here to get different things out of the discussions and that's fine.

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Does that mean that as long as you win you don't care whether it's $100 or $1,000,000?

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He didn't say that he doesn't care about his own results. He said that he doesn't care that much about the win rate of some random guy he has never met who posted on an internet forum. That sounds rational to me.

baronzeus · #77 08-02-2005, 02:33 PM

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What kind of bankroll would I need for < 5 handed 30/60? 30K? 40K?

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I don't know about numbers...just be ready for some huge swings in one day. You'd probably never bust if you had 30k if you truly are a winning player I would think. What's more important than bankroll is how you handle the swings...your emotional bankroll...cause you're going to get your ass handed to you a lot...just because of the nature of an aggressive short handed game.

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My emotional bankroll is zero. I'll wait a year before trying out anything this testing.

bobbyi · #78 08-02-2005, 02:41 PM

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I'm finding more and more that 100/200 online takes more and more heart. And especially 300/600. I've pretty much thrown in the towel on that. Winning and losing 30k in afternoons just isn't what I'm cut out for right now...

Everything seems so nice and ok until you hit one of the normal bb/wise losing streaks. Even when it means almost nothing to your bankroll.

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Isn't moving up to a new limit always like this? This sounds similar to how I felt the first time playing 4/8 as a broke college student, and how I felt at first when I started playing 10/20 and how I felt at first when I played 30/60... But eventually you get used to the swings at the new limit and it seems normal. Why do you think this won't happen at 300/600?

daryn · #79 08-02-2005, 02:42 PM

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how bout this, im never skeptical of his bb/100 stats because i dont care.

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This is so weird I don't even know how to respond. You don't care? Please explain. I think it's fair to say that the purpose of these forums is to improve our games -- i.e., win as much as possible. The whole point is to maximize winrate (or overall $$ if you're willing to sacrifice "rate" for gross). But to say you don't care blows my mind. Does that mean that as long as you win you don't care whether it's $100 or $1,000,000? That as long as you "know" what the right play is it doesn't matter if you actually make that play or not? What are you talking about?

BB/100 (over a reasonable number of hands) is a very good, if not the best, measure of how good a player you are. That is, whether you play well. That is, whether you know what you're doing. That is, whether you do the right thing. The "right" thing is the thing that wins the most $$. Saying you don't care about winrate is like saying you don't care whether you play well or not, in which case why should anybody listen to anything you have to say?

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wow man, you are very misguided

bicyclekick · #80 08-02-2005, 02:51 PM

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I'm finding more and more that 100/200 online takes more and more heart. And especially 300/600. I've pretty much thrown in the towel on that. Winning and losing 30k in afternoons just isn't what I'm cut out for right now...

Everything seems so nice and ok until you hit one of the normal bb/wise losing streaks. Even when it means almost nothing to your bankroll.

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Isn't moving up to a new limit always like this? This sounds similar to how I felt the first time playing 4/8 as a broke college student, and how I felt at first when I started playing 10/20 and how I felt at first when I played 30/60... But eventually you get used to the swings at the new limit and it seems normal. Why do you think this won't happen at 300/600?

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Right, and I thought I was getting used to it...but you have to remember I've only played poker for 2 years...and 2 years ago I was a poor ass college kid...and when you're winning more than you're losing those swings don't seem so bad...but when you dump 50k in a couple days...you think of what 50k really means in life and I dunno. I just don't like what it does to my mood. It's not worth it...at least now. You're right, it is exactly like moving up with regaurds to other limits...completely. I just don't have the heart for it right now is all. And there really hasn't been reason to play that game lately anyhow. Just very good players...and I don't even think my winrate would be positive.

I ruined my july by playing it and it was kinda annoying. My bb/100 for the month was was 2.02 but I was stuck 12k. I'd just rather grind out a very nice chunk of change for a bit than go for the huge bucks or play for show. I'm sure someday I'll be back. I would play in a high-limit live LHE game though. That's slower and I've always wanted to try it.

So I'll stick to the lower limits where the variance is only of the dammit i'm losing type instead of even thinking about money.