4th Nut? Massive Overbet? Why the hell not!

[kagame]

So I've recently tried to shake things up in the $1000NL on Party. I have been getting called by the most ridiculous hands, its really incredible. Anyway, Villain seems to be a chronic slowplayer, and I'm praying he has a set and can call me. I'm beating a large number of flushes that also would call. How high is my risk factor here of running into a higher flush would you say? Is this a great overbet, silly for reasons of not getting value, or just plain moronic? Ready set go!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($761.4)</font>
UTG ($594)
UTG+1 ($970.92)
MP1 ($565.05)
MP2 ($641.85)
CO ($876.15)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($740.05)</font>
SB ($717.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls $18, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($57) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $45</font>, Button calls $45, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($192) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $75</font>, Hero calls $75, UTG+1 folds.

River: ($342) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $623.4 (All-In)</font>

Final Pot: $1567.45

[Spladle Master]

I would just like to point out that I was the first one to vote "Nice overbet."

[kagame]

lol thanks

hope i get SOME analysis feedback on this

wasnt sure what including the poll would do...

[stu-unger]

im not voting because i dont see the option i want. I'd say super duper balsy with a good win %. I dont think id make this over bet just because someone could just as easily have aces with a flush draw on the flop as the set your hoping he has. It looks like he was weak on the turn. What were the results of the hand, 4th nut no good?

[kagame]

i WOULD say i know for certain he doesnt have the A high flush draw as he doesnt reraise the flop...

but ive seen him slowplaying sets so i dont know if hed cold call with that also [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[TheWorstPlayer]

*Deleted

[kagame]

aww damnit

[xPuns1her]

One slight problem with the hand... it says the guy raised to $18 preflop.. thats not possible. The blinds are 5/10 in NL1000 so your whole post is obviously a scam because the min raise is to $20.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed)

[/ QUOTE ]
Or, he's playing the $600 at this point despite his penchant for making moves in the 1K.

[xPuns1her]

Yeah, liar.