Fade the Colts the rest of the season?

[legend42]

I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

I don't know how anyone could think the Colts might be counterfeit, and even whether the lines are truly inflated is somewhat debateable. There are certain outstanding teams that are so dominant, no matter how much they keep winning and covering, no matter how 'public' they become, the lines are never able to catch up with them.

The only reason the lines don't go through the roof is because there are "sharps" out there (who seem to know everything about square line movements, over-adjustments, regression, fading the public, etc. but nothing about sports) who are willing to fade these teams, on the perception of some kind of elusive "value" (I know a guy who bet against the Bulls in the NBA Finals all six times using this philosophy). Why be one of them?

[IndyGuy]

I'd seen these points too. I'm a Colts fan, so I've followed them for years. The thing that makes this team better than the past couple years is the ability to produce long, clock-killing drives since it allows their defense to get off the field for a rest. Since the defense is predicated on speed, this is essential.

If Dungy pulls the first string offense, the defense will struggle to keep up, get fatigued, and possibly injured.

Most pundits seem to think losing Manning, Harrison, or James would kill the Colts. This may be true; certainly it is with Manning, but Harrison and James' backups get more playing time and would be more ready to go. But an injury to the defensive stars (Freeny, Mathis, Sanders) would be almost as costly. And the only way to avoid overplaying them (with the limited rosters) is to keep playing the first-string O.

I think Dungy knows this, and expect we'll see the first-string offense for at least three quarters against SD and Seattle, and a quarter or a half against Arizona.

[DeucesUp]

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I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

[legend42]

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far.

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That's a valid point. But they've easily handled everything that's come their way, which is all they can do (and being able to consistently destroy bad teams is just as important as winning the tough games as far as ATS is concerned).

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I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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You're probably right, but more because variance would be more likely to catch up to them than any on-the-field reason. They're unquestionably the best team in the NFL, and it's not close.

Are they one of those super elite teams who can keep outrunning the line (almost) week after week? Maybe not, but they have all the makings of one. I decided months ago that no matter how tempting the line looked, I wouldn't fade them all season. It's a rule that's done well for me so far, and I'm not about to break it now.

There are so many better values out there.

[bottomset]

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[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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by the time they get to the playoffs they will have played a fairly tough schedule, and they have been really damn good so far