Reraising big with a pair and flush draw into a min-raiser on the flop

rikz · #1 07-12-2005, 03:03 AM

Villain is Loose (39% V$PIP) and generally passive both preflop (0% PFR after 67 hands) and post flop (1.3 TAF).

I figured that I could push out any higher flush draws with my $15 re-raise, push out most players with an A-high pair/good kicker, and have some outs if I run into a set.

Basically, this is a big semi-bluff in a multi-way pot.

If I have to go to the river against AK (no clubs), here's my equity:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499
8c 7c 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501

So, I'm a coin flip (slightly ahead if an Ax caller/raiser has no clubs).

Worst case, I'm a 7:3 underdog against a set that has no clubs (slightly worse if the set has a club).

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s 2d 692 69.90 298 30.10 0 0.00 0.699
8c 7c 298 30.10 692 69.90 0 0.00 0.301

Meanwhile, against a higher flush draw that calls, I'm still doing pretty well because I've already made a small pair on the flop.

So, was this play and call OK? Or was the play OK, and the call bad? Or was this just chip spewing?

Thanks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

MP1 ($22.20)
MP2 Villain ($32.82)
MP3 ($51.15)
Hero ($51.05)
Button ($15.10)
SB ($18.25)
BB ($52.24)
UTG ($18.65)
UTG+1 ($33.75)
UTG+2 ($19.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 Villain calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds.

Flop: ($5.35) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG bets $3, MP1 folds, Villain calls $3, MP3 raises to $6, Hero raises to $15, UTG folds, Villain calls $28.82 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero calls $16.82.

Comments?

xorbie · #2 07-12-2005, 01:25 PM

Beautiful. You absolutely have to raise here when it gets around to you, to price out a higher flush draw and keep only made hands around. Once it gets back to you, even if villain flips over AA you are getting about the right price to call.

The only other option is just pushing it in yourself on the flop, because if your raise does get called, it's hard to see villain (or whoever else calls) not pushing the turn.

swolfe · #3 07-12-2005, 02:45 PM

a pot sized raise is to $30 straight. i'd probably have just pushed.

djoyce003 · #4 07-12-2005, 03:41 PM

You are only making it 15 to go into an $18 pot. Anyone else has to call either 12, or 9 in order to win about 35. If you are playing this hand you have to push here because the raise you made has an estimated fold equity of nearly 0%. The point on making some of these plays is you pick up fold equity, but that isn't happening here. You are basically a coin flip. if he has the ace. Villain didn't raise this preflop so I think AK is unlikely. I do think A7 is likely. I also think a better flush draw is likely which is what you should pray he has because that's the only hand that might call that you are ahead of. I think this is a marginally negative EV play.

Go_Blue88 · #5 07-12-2005, 03:44 PM

I like this play at deeper stakes/stacks, but at NL 25 don't people call with TP and flush draws all the time? I think it's great that you tried to make this play, but i'm just wondering, do other posters think that this is a profitable move in NL 25?

theben · #6 07-12-2005, 03:59 PM

as long as you have the BR to gamble here, i say play back on the flop strongly

flat reraising to something substantial (making a correctly sized raise) commits you based on stacks and might put you in an uncomfotable spot on the turn. so i like pushing and hoping everybody folds. definetly push out a larger flush draw

in this spot after the bet, call, and raise i expect you'll be called and have to draw out but you might be able to pick it up