Push or Fold

guaranteedBluff · #1 11-25-2005, 11:19 AM

Villain is 33/16, but only after 20 hands. Seems very aggressive though - he has already reraised once PF on his blinds. This previous hand resulted in him taking down the pot right there, so I'm not sure of his reraising hand range. Do I just lay this down and pick a better spot?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t675)
UTG+1 (t2595)
UTG+2 (t1420)
MP1 (t2735)
MP2 (t1485)
Hero (t2535)
CO (t3015)
Button (t6990)
SB (t4370)
BB (t3820)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to t400, 3 folds, BB raises to t1000, Hero....

utmt40 · #2 11-25-2005, 11:23 AM

What was the buy-in for this tourney?

#3 11-25-2005, 11:26 AM

I'd gladly take a coinflip (where I have the better edge) to double up if this even is a coinflip, I may aswell be a 4-1 favorite. And since you say he raised his blind earlier it makes it even easier for me to push.

I push.

guaranteedBluff · #4 11-25-2005, 11:43 AM

it was the super thursday - $150

utmt40 · #5 11-25-2005, 12:07 PM

Ok, I would say I agree that its a POOOOOOOSH!

#6 11-25-2005, 12:11 PM

I'd be tempted to call. Do I understand correctly - if you go all in, he's got another 1400 to call if you go all in? In which case, he's calling, no? In this case, there is no benefit to pushing all your chips in - I would wait for the flop and see what he does and he will act first.

guaranteedBluff · #7 11-25-2005, 12:16 PM

If I call, I have t1500 behind... Then, I feel like the flop decision may be even more difficult. When do I call his flop push, when do I fold to his flop push?

utmt40 · #8 11-25-2005, 12:31 PM

Its too risky there for you to just call. If he has been super aggresive then I am coming over the top and taking my chances. You dont want to put that much in leaving you with like 10BBs left and then you'll end up pushing some other schmuck of a hand. I take my chances here and push.

#9 11-25-2005, 12:39 PM

It's difficult but, as I say, if you know he's calling then the push only makes sense if you think you're going to win the hand.
There's the chance that you'll flop trips, a low board or a draw in which case, you push the rest in.
If the flop comes down with two overcards and he bets, you fold and live to fight another day.
This is just a suggestion for discussion. It's helped my tournament game, trying the odd call here and there. In the past, I would have seen the options as only push or fold but I've tried the stop and go a few times recently and it's worked quite well, if only because people don't expect calls and it makes you harder to read.
It's just a suggestion and one I would have probably have used myself in that situation (depending on my image, other players etc.). I don't want to be folding hooks for the sake of another 600 chips but I don't want my whole tournament to depend on them either. The key here, for me, is that there is no benefit to pushing - he's almost certainly calling and if you make a hand on the flop, you should be able to get the rest of your chips in by the river so why rush?

#10 11-25-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be tempted to call. Do I understand correctly - if you go all in, he's got another 1400 to call if you go all in? In which case, he's calling, no? In this case, there is no benefit to pushing all your chips in - I would wait for the flop and see what he does and he will act first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he is first to act, if any overcard hits you'll be put in a tough spot. would you call his all-in? What if he has AQ and the king hits. He could bluff you off it here with a stop-and-go all in.

The point of the All-in preflop is that only AA KK QQ have you hurting, and the range of hands you put him on after his raise is much much broader than that. Something like [AJ and up, PPairs 88 and up, and KQs] is plausible.

There's always the chance that he has the bigger pair, but second guessing pairs with natural strength like Jacks in limited-info situations like this is -EV... it leads to less wins because you are afraid of being maximally agressive. The risk of KK vs JJ is just the risk you take playing poker. If he has you beat, make him prove it, and take your 20% chance of trips as a little consolation prize.

As an aside, Phil Gordon mentions in his Little Green Book that "The Fourth Raise is Ususally Aces."

So if you did re-raise him with your jacks in a deeper-stack situation, and he came back at you all-in, you would have a bit more information and would be able to make a laydown.

The size of the stacks relative to the chips in play (READ: POT ODDS) is the important factor in the decision to push here (other than the strength of the pair of course)

Cheers.