AQ UTG on the bubble

Hi everyone. Hope that these questions are not too basic. But I assume some other Poker newbies out there probably have the same question, so I will ask it for them!

Bubble play on a $22 MTT, AQ dealt under the gun. Do you do the standard 3 BB raise here (M is 6.25), push or fold (good but vulnerable hand).

Thank you for your replies!


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB (t9742)
Hero (t7636)
UTG+1 (t12118)
UTG+2 (t6476)
MP1 (t5800)
MP2 (t8909)
MP3 (t6770)
CO (t4550)
Button (t26535)
SB (t6937)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Push!!!!

fold

[ QUOTE ]
fold

[/ QUOTE ]

And why fold, just curious. Also why push?

I am torn here because I want to get my money in the middle, but the position is terrible. Please include reasoning behind push or fold on this one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks!

[betgo]

You have odds to push AQ UTG anyway and the bubble makes the table tighter, so the push is even better.

Move all in. Everyone else is afraid of the bubble, your M is low and you need to start winning chips to stand a chance of winning the tourney(which should be your aim, not just to scrape into the money)
They need a bigger hand to call your all in than you need to make the move from UTG (Gap Concept)

[surfinillini]

why is this a push or fold situation. If your goal is to win the blinds, and you push, you're only going to get called by a dominating hand.

I say just raise it 3-4x BB and try to take down the blinds that way, I see no point in pushing here, your not a shortstack yet so you don't need to double but winning a few uncontested preflop pots wouldn't hurt.

But if you raise 4xBB you have just put in nearly half your stack, if you are re raised what are you going to do? fold then go through the blinds, very very short after that?

For me, it's all in or nothing. Put them to the test.

[surfinillini]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you raise 4xBB you have just put in nearly half your stack, if you are re raised what are you going to do? fold then go through the blinds, very very short after that?

For me, it's all in or nothing. Put them to the test.

[/ QUOTE ]

well then minraise and confuse your opponents. this is not a good spot to push but it's also not a hand to fold at this point.

You need to accumulate chips and I think you have to push this. You won't need position after the flop since your AI anyway. You got 9 people left behind you to act. What hands do you think will call you? Well the ones that have you in bad shape are AA (3), KK (6), QQ (3), AK (12). And I think theres 1326 combinations total. So, 24/1326 multiplied by 9 = about 16%. If you threw in pairs of JJ-88 that would be exactly twice as many combinations making it 32% but these hands might fold still fearing the bubble. Your chip stack is too low to pass up this equity considering your equity against the range I mentioned above is 24% against the 16% category and 34% against the lower pocket pairs added (32%) but 88 and 99 will have a tough time making that call especially on the bubble. You have a lot of FE here and can't afford to lose out on those chips.

From an EV standpoint it looks like this.... (i'll use a range of TT+,AK,AKs)

9 x (36/1326) = 24.4 so.... 25% (meaning you get called)
9 x (1290/1326) = 74.6 so.. 75% (everyone folds)

Now against that range mentioned above your equity is roughly 31.5%.

Your stack size is 5000 and if you get called and the blinds fold we'll say this pot is 11,200.

you win 1200 75% of the time
you win 11,200 31.5% (of 25%) of the time
you lose 5,000 68.5% (of 25%) of the time

.75(1200) + .25(.315 x 11,200) + .25(.685 x -5,000)
900 + 882 - 856 = + $926