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#1
10-01-2004, 08:52 PM
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week 4 totals
Miami/Jets 37
This is a great total. Miami has the #1 pass d in the league and Pennington has struggled vs. Miami in his career. I believe he has only 1 pass TD against them. We all know about Miami's offensive woes (they have scored 23 pts in 3 games!) and while they might score more than 10, they also have a chance to hold the Jets to about 10. This total is at 37 partly because the Jets offense has been so hot, but they will cool down considerably when the Miami d puts on the heat. The good thing about this game is there are TWO likely scenarios that will give you the money. 1. Miami D shuts down the Jets 2. Miami offense continues to suck It looks like BOTH of those will have to go wrong to lose this total. I like it. Baltimore/KC under 41.5 You're getting the hook on a key number and KC's offense has been total garbage! And now Trent Green is travelling to Baltimore where quarterbacks go to die. This is unbelievable. The only danger here is if Baltimore can score 30 at home again. I doubt it, take the under. Tampa/Denver under 35 A very low total, and the danger here is defensive scoring could put it over. But I am very impressed with both defenses so far. Tampa held Seattle to 10. I believe the total reflects two misperceptions: 1. Tampa's garbage yards/scores from last week's 4th quarter. Their offense stinks and will continue to stink. 2. Denver's offense is WAY overrated right now, Tampa will shut them down. Totals this year: 4-1 Let's hope it gets better. natedogg 
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#3
10-02-2004, 02:45 PM
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Re: week 4 totals
You're right that is the riskiest one but I still think the odds are that the Baltimore offense will struggle. They are perfectly suited to getting a nice 7 pt lead and then pounding the ball for two quarters to wrap it up.
I will be astonished if KC scores more than 17 and I expect to see 10 from them. But you're right, this is the least of the 3 plays. natedogg
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#4
10-04-2004, 02:39 AM
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Re: week 4 totals
Not to put the Scalf jinx on you but your totals picks are absolutely the bomb. I took both today. Still worried about Jamal tommorrow, since I think he learned he wasn't going to miss any football or do serious time in jail last week from his lawyers, public learned this week 4 months after season, so he ran wild last Sunday since he was relieved. I have a similar theory with Kobe, he played great after court, realizing his case was strong. Okay, maybe not. Chiefs D made that little back from Denver look like Barry Sanders.
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#6
10-04-2004, 06:52 PM
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Re: week 4 totals
So you are getting 2:1. What you are hoping for is Balitimore's D just comes out smoking at home on Monday night. Really shuts them down, sacks, punts, turnovers but no real Defensive/Special teams scores. KC manages a score here or there, but struggles to get to double figures. This might happen 45% of the time.
Then looking at B-more, you are hoping Jamal won't run wild. This is their only real weapon, so they need to keep him contained. Lets say he runs wild (or somebody else steps up huge) 45% of the time (or won't happen 55%) .55 x .55 = 30 percent. So you need to win more than 33 percent. So I think its close and obviously if you think my figures are wrong (they are, they might not even be that close), or you can think of other variables, then it might be a good bet.
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