Tell me the friggin odds!

wray · #1 03-29-2005, 08:49 AM

How can I lose with pocket Aces 5 out of 6 times?

1)Flop a set and they catch and inside straight on the river(limit hold em)

2)Flop a set and win(limit hold em)

3)No help and lose to a straight on the turn

4)End up with Kings full of Aces to 4 kings(no limit cash game)

5)End up getting all the money in preflop and lose to pocket 10's getting a set on the flop.(NL tourney)

6)End up getting all the money in preflop and lose to pocket jacks getting a set on the flop.(NL tourney)

The last 2 times I made a 3.5XBB raise and was raised back.

kagame · #2 03-29-2005, 08:54 AM

anything that can happen once can happen...more than once

go buy pokertracker and do a 30k hand sample
im working on proving i lose with AA 45% of the time lol

5500 hands in wish me luck

JFB37 · #3 03-29-2005, 10:01 AM

It happens. Aces just aren't an automatic payday. Are you sure that you played all the hands correctly?

[ QUOTE ]
1)Flop a set and they catch and inside straight on the river(limit hold em)

[/ QUOTE ]

How did the betting go? Did you give your opponent any free cards? Or, was it a multi-way situation where your opponent had correct odds to call on the turn?

[ QUOTE ]
4)End up with Kings full of Aces to 4 kings(no limit cash game)

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, there were three Kings on the board. When did they come off? There was at least one on the flop. Were there two? If the second King came off on the turn, what was the action like? How about on the river?

[ QUOTE ]
5)End up getting all the money in preflop and lose to pocket 10's getting a set on the flop.(NL tourney)

6)End up getting all the money in preflop and lose to pocket jacks getting a set on the flop.(NL tourney)

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing you can do here, but the odd's aren't so unbelievable as to make me start looking for UFO's. You have an 80% chance of winning each one. That means that you have:

* A 64% chance of winning both

* A 32% chance of winning one

* A 4% chance of losing both

phil_ivey_fan · #4 03-29-2005, 10:07 AM

sounds like my day (yesterday)

wray · #5 03-29-2005, 10:17 AM

The kings full of Aces was debatable.

I had raised preflop after several limpers. All of them called my 20 dollar raise. So at least one of them having a king was VERY likely. The flop brought KKx. The first guy bet 25. (I didn't really think he'd bet 3 kings with about 4 people to act after him.) I was really worried and ready to fold but everyone after him folded to his bet. Again IMO I should have raised to feel him out. Instead I went all-in for about 125 more. He thought about it for a sec then called. He had K2. Another K came on the turn and I was cooked.

All other hands I'm convinced I played correctly.

wray · #6 03-29-2005, 10:20 AM

Nothing you can do here, but the odd's aren't so unbelievable as to make me start looking for UFO's. You have an 80% chance of winning each one. That means that you have:

* A 64% chance of winning both

* A 32% chance of winning one

* A 4% chance of losing both

[/ QUOTE ]

So losing 5 out of 6 is like a .oooooooo3%?

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I realize bad streaks happen and I'm not suggesting my ex-wife hired someone with magical powers to break me but it's just awful luck.

TakeMeToTheRiver · #7 03-29-2005, 11:32 AM

Answer: Fold AA pre-flop.

turnipmonster · #8 03-29-2005, 11:35 AM

clearly the right move is to whine on the strategy forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

wray · #9 03-29-2005, 11:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Answer: Fold AA pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I'm not very smart.

wray · #10 03-29-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
clearly the right move is to whine on the strategy forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

I really didn't know where to post this but I did want to share. I realize it's just a bad run of cards but it was either whine here or drive to my mom's to get a hug. It was late at night so I opted for you people.