What I thought was a great flop became a difficult flop decision

Yea but

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
{ Js9s }: 15.0609 % 15.06% 00.00%
{ AsTs }: 41.1960 % 41.20% 00.00%
{ QcQd }: 43.7431 % 43.74% 00.00%

vs

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
{ Js9s }: 50.1010 % 50.10% 00.00%
{ QcQd }: 49.8990 % 49.90% 00.00%

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea but

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
{ Js9s }: 15.0609 % 15.06% 00.00%
{ AsTs }: 41.1960 % 41.20% 00.00%
{ QcQd }: 43.7431 % 43.74% 00.00%

vs

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
{ Js9s }: 50.1010 % 50.10% 00.00%
{ QcQd }: 49.8990 % 49.90% 00.00%

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you kill two more spades in the last one?

Not that it makes a huge difference but that was my point.

edit: and that's putting the villain squarely on an overpair. Here's the narrow range that I've been seeing lately when I push in these spots with the added pleasure of two more dead spades.

Board: 8s 4s 9d
Dead: Ks Ts

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.9043 % 40.66% 00.24% { Js9s }
Hand 2: 59.0957 % 58.85% 00.24% { TT+, 88, 44, A9s, 98s, A9o, 98o }

[cockandbull]

had you thought about check the flop?

I'd probably fold this and wait for a better opportunity. Here's why:

Against a set (88,44), we're behind about 30/70. Zero chance of fold equity.

Against 2 pair, we're about 45/55. Might get some fold equity here, but it's still pretty even.

Against overpairs (KK/AA), we're almost dead even, but we get a lot better fold equity, imo.

I don't see A9 reraising like this at all.

So, it comes down to how you know the player handles preflop situations. With only a $2 call here, and no re-raise, I'm guessing he's on a set or 2-pair.

Just my 2 cents.

Anyone else?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.2935 % 45.29% 00.00% { Js9s }
Hand 2: 54.7065 % 54.71% 00.00% { QcQd }

Thats with the dead spades. The only time we are in a really bad spot is if they both come along. Pushing at least one of them out in this spot is always going to be beneficial to our equity. Yea, AsTs calling if the other guy folds is a very good, albeit unlikely, result.

[Wayfare]

Fold.

You have little fold equity, the times you get a call you will be crushed, your hand is either not good at the moment or your draws will not be live.

If he's got a better flush draw--a push will be giving him (well he'll think that) odds to chase against you and you definitely do not want that to call. He's going to fold a straight draw with that push. I think pushing is -EV in this situation three handed. I'd say fold because something here is beat pretty bad or both (either hand or draw). Calling won't work because everyone (well everyone at these limits) fears flushes. Raising won't work cause a bigger draw might chase with you. If CO has a set--you're dead in this hand.

I think you have to lead this flop. He flopped top pair with a flush draw--it's not like the other guy was automatically going to fire like a nutso after a pathetic min raise.

He hit the flop huge but there's a huge potential (UTG might easily have a straight draw) for you to win not much or lose a lot.

I strongly believe pushing with weak hands like this is a huge leak in a lot of the people's games. I know you want some deception but since when has ANYONE ever paid attention in these limits?

[soah]

Calling is almost certainly superior to folding. You're getting 3:1 immediate odds, and if UTG overcalls you are getting almost exactly the correct price to draw at the flush all by itself. Your flush will be good the majority of the time that it hits and since you bet the flop, your hand is somewhat disguised.

No way this is a push. He may be doing exacty what you are doing with K,6 suited, or A,4 suited. My point is your Jack high flush is a mediocre flush in this situation. Even if you hit your hand you don't want to push. Fold.

[ QUOTE ]
it's not a huge draw. He has TPWK and a potentially beaten flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point exactly. fold.