Bizarre event, how likely is this?

hagel666 · #1 11-20-2005, 06:23 PM

Hi, I played some poker yesterday and knew one player had QQ twice, then when I checked Poker Tracker I saw something bizarre, do you see it?

Party Poker (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, BB folds.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 calls 27.40 (All-In).

Final Pot:

Results: 
UTG+1 has Qh Qc (three of a kind, queens).
MP2 has Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins . 

36 hands later...

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
8 folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks.

Final Pot:

Results: 
BB has Kd 3d (two pair, nines and threes).
UTG+1 has Qd Qc (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: 

Question in white: 
So the question is, how likely is it that a player get the same starthand in the same position and get the same flop twice in a session? (same except for different suits)

-Hagel

hagel666 · #2 11-20-2005, 08:40 PM

Ok, no answers, maybe it's to hard to solve. But here the question is again if someone has a clue:

How big is the chance that a player get QQ twice in the same position (UTG+1) in the same session and both times flop 963? (The session lasted about 90 hands.)

bigt2k4 · #3 11-21-2005, 12:12 AM

I got dealt AK 5 times in a row on the same table once, different suits only one was suited

hagel666 · #4 11-21-2005, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I got dealt AK 5 times in a row on the same table once, different suits only one was suited

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's really unlikely.

To be dealt AK 3 times in a row is about 0.000181%

......5 times in a row...hmm....my computer calculator can't give a readable answer [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#5 11-21-2005, 10:18 PM

Last night on a $15 SNG I got AA first two hands and again on the 10th. Also got AKs twice in that span, a bunch of other good hands and KK right after. People at the table were freaking out.

Naturally I didn't even make the money.

#6 11-22-2005, 12:02 AM

The other night I was watching the high stakes table at Full Tilt and a royal flush came on the board, in ORDER. T J Q K A of clubs. Someone said the odds of this happening are 1 in 70 some million.

#7 11-21-2005, 02:13 AM

Totally wrong way of looking at it.

How many times have you played about 90 hands and that not happened?

Let me give you an analogy.

Let's say the chances of walking around a corner and bumping into someone you haven't seen for 40 years is about 2 million to one.

I imagine that you walk around billions of corners in your life.

Thus, although on any PARTICULAR occassion it would be weird to bump into said person but in your entire life it would be weird if you that 'coincidence' didn't happen.

Likewise with the poker. If you said, "what is the probability that within the next 90 hands , we get 2 hands where I get the same starting hand and the flop is identical, then the probability is very small.

However, the probability of this hapening within the space of 90 hands at some point is vitually certain because of the number of hands played.

In fact, if this never happened on PP where they are currently on hand number 3,070,044,011 then that would be better evidence of a fix.

Why fix it anyway? They take the rake, so what do they care?

mterry · #8 11-21-2005, 02:21 AM

Also, if 100,000 people are currently on online poker sites, there is some small chance that some rare occurences will happen AND be seen by at least one player AND that player will then post on 2+2. Multiply those probabilities and you will have the probability that we get a thread like this one.

Back to LHE.

Mike

hagel666 · #9 11-21-2005, 09:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Totally wrong way of looking at it.

How many times have you played about 90 hands and that not happened?

Let me give you an analogy.

Let's say the chances of walking around a corner and bumping into someone you haven't seen for 40 years is about 2 million to one.

I imagine that you walk around billions of corners in your life.

Thus, although on any PARTICULAR occassion it would be weird to bump into said person but in your entire life it would be weird if you that 'coincidence' didn't happen.

Likewise with the poker. If you said, "what is the probability that within the next 90 hands , we get 2 hands where I get the same starting hand and the flop is identical, then the probability is very small.

However, the probability of this hapening within the space of 90 hands at some point is vitually certain because of the number of hands played.

In fact, if this never happened on PP where they are currently on hand number 3,070,044,011 then that would be better evidence of a fix.

Why fix it anyway? They take the rake, so what do they care?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know unlikely events happens all the time, just thought this was pretty special because of same player/pos/flop. And I thought it would be fun to know what the probability is.....but I guess it's to many variables and to complicated equation to solve.

For your info, I didn't say it was fixed/rigged or anything [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

#10 11-20-2005, 09:41 PM

This is absolute definitive proof that online poker software is all rigged.