77 Say When

Danenania · #1 08-26-2005, 01:54 AM

MP is laggy preflop and loose passive postflop. Button's numbers are 28/12/1.5. No read on him past those not particularly impressive numbers.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP calls, Button raises, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

How was my line and what's my river plan?

#2 08-26-2005, 02:02 AM

I like the line to this point, I think I bet/call the river

ALL1N · #3 08-26-2005, 02:03 AM

Line is good (preflop call iffy).

Check-call the river: 18 combos of AQ, 12 combos of a higher set --> you're only ahead 60%, which is not enough to checkraise (I think it's safe to assume from the numbers that A9 is not possible).

Danenania · #4 08-26-2005, 02:04 AM

But are the sets really equally likely given his flop raise?

ALL1N · #5 08-26-2005, 02:07 AM

More maths! If he slowplays his sets 25% of the time then checkraising could be right, but who says he won't slowplay AQ too (or raise the flop with QQ)?

cartman · #6 08-26-2005, 02:18 AM

I am probably misunderstanding something, but aren't there only 3*3=9 combos of AQ?

Thanks,
Cartman

ALL1N · #7 08-26-2005, 02:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am probably misunderstanding something, but aren't there only 3*3=9 combos of AQ?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, wrong word. There are 18 permutations of AQ, because it can be dealt ace first or queen first.

AQ = (6 first cards) x (3 second cards) = 18
AA = (3 first cards) x (2 second cards) = 6

Danenania · #8 08-26-2005, 02:18 AM

And you really think PF is iffy? I've been calling with any PP's in this spot for awhile now. Is this way too loose?

ALL1N · #9 08-26-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And you really think PF is iffy? I've been calling with any PP's in this spot for awhile now. Is this way too loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, calling here would usually be right, but the button's pfr is just too low, IMO.

sthief09 · #10 08-26-2005, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And you really think PF is iffy? I've been calling with any PP's in this spot for awhile now. Is this way too loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, the 3-bettor has a 12 PFR. that's pretty much AA-TT, AK/AQ. your implied odds aren't remotely close enough to play it for that and I doubt there's much value in playing it for pair value