still confused about steals on the bubble

liucipher · #1 05-07-2005, 06:46 PM

I dunno how to play poker. Someone please enlighten me.

Things had tightened up considerably on the bubble. Villain had raised 1/3 of his stack 2 hands before and folded when reraised all-in. For what it's worth I had a fairly tight table image, having shown only KK and JJ so far. Am I supposed to push with any two in this scenario?

Pros: This guy would like his BB but he's not crippled if he loses it. I am 'a tight player' assuming anyone's paying attention. I am at 6xBB after posting and could use the 300 in the pot for the next round.

Cons: I have the second worst hand possible. I am not desperate to the point where I NEED those chips (though neither of us are).

Mitigating factors: the guy in the BB when I am on button is fairly loose. He had doubled through my JJ w/ A8o earlier. He doubled through a few hands later calling AKo w/ AJs. I am not looking forward to trying to steal from him.

And is it just me or is something wrong with the forum's graphic display . . . ?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Button (t2370)
Hero (t1380)
BB (t1170)
UTG (t3080)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2c, 4d.

Folds to the Hero in SB and ???

valenzuela · #2 05-07-2005, 07:11 PM

after analizing the hand I would push, A8? thats a great calling range for u.

liucipher · #3 05-07-2005, 11:30 PM

I'm confused. Are you saying if he has an A8+ calling range, given the probability he has the hand / the probability of me sucking out, it's a good push?

DasLeben · #4 05-08-2005, 12:02 AM

Well, you have to be able to put your opponent on a calling range. If his range is sufficiently tight, it's +EV to push any two here. Based upon his previous action, I might expect him to call with something like 55+, A6+, KT+.

If that calling range is fairly accurate, this is a push, and it's not even close.

liucipher · #5 05-08-2005, 12:07 AM

Oh, no the guy who doubled through twice was the guy who was in BB when I was on the button, not the BB when I was in SB.

I think my read was right that he was tight. He sat there for a minute and spent most of his time bank, and then called w/ KQs. Just confirming that pushing w/ any two was the right move regardless of the outcome. Thanks.