7/8b hand 6

[fnord_too]

I think I really need to fold 6th here.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

6th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (5.00 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: (7.00 BB)

[Aaron W.]

Why did you bet into the open pair of sevens after he called your raise on 3rd street?

[Andy B]

I think it's reasonably safe to say that you're only playing for half the pot on sixth street. By my count, there are 36 unknown cards, twelve of which will give you a low. That's 2:1 against you, and the pot's giving you 1.5:1, making this a fold. I have a hard time imagining that your Aces are good on the river.

[mscags]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's reasonably safe to say that you're only playing for half the pot on sixth street. By my count, there are 36 unknown cards, twelve of which will give you a low. That's 2:1 against you, and the pot's giving you 1.5:1, making this a fold. I have a hard time imagining that your Aces are good on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[fnord_too]

I don't have a clear memory of the reults here. I think all he had was teh 7's and a busted low. Clearly I need to bail on sixth.

[benwood]

Odds 2 to 1 against making a low. If you fold, you lose 1 BB. Using 3 trials as an example, suppose you call. On 2 hands you lose 2BB's,counting the 1 you have already "invested". The 3rd time ,you get your original bet back. It seems that, on average, the call results in minus 1 BB, the same as the fold. Andy, I am sure that my analysis is wrong, but I can't figure out why. Give me some help,please. Thank you. Ben.

[Andy B]

Money in the pot is no longer yours. If you call on sixth, two times in three your will lose that one bet, assuming that you don't pay off on the river. One time in three, you will gain 1.5 BB, half of the current pot. Your expectation when you call sixth street is

(1.5 - 2)/3 = -.1666666666666 BB

If the pot had 4 BB, calling would be neutral EV.

[benwood]

Yea, I got it, Andy. Thanks. Ben.