KK vs AA - getting away from kings?

[JMa]

this has happened to me alot lately.

NL 5/10 6-handed

effective stack is $1k

UTG limps and I (CO) makes it $50 w/ kings. SB who is imaginative and can do moves, though mostly postflop moves, makes it $200. Now what? Reraising here commits me and and gives my hand away. If I call here the pot is $400 and I have $600 left, which doesnt give me alot of room. Seems like I get stacked every time.

[Yeti]

Call.

Get the rest in on the flop.

[ObnxNole]

[ QUOTE ]
this has happened to me alot lately.

NL 5/10 6-handed

effective stack is $1k

UTG limps and I (CO) makes it $50 w/ kings. SB who is imaginative and can do moves, though mostly postflop moves, makes it $200. Now what? Reraising here commits me and and gives my hand away. If I call here the pot is $400 and I have $600 left, which doesnt give me alot of room. Seems like I get stacked every time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you answered your own post dude. If you think he has Aces then fold. I however have to agree with Yeti.

This has happened to me a lot, too, where it "seems" so obvious that I'm being reraised w/AA. Three times in one week a while ago, this happened to me with raises that were roughly 3x what I had made it to go. Twice I took Yeti's line on a blank board and paid off AA for all my stack. The other time, I took forever, commented that I was putting a big one in the muck, and was shown AA.
Here's the quick math I did on it, though, so I could some times justify folding. Please excuse the many imprecise assumptions and freely critique/identify any flaws or glaring oversights and errors. Negate the impact of the initial pot/blinds.

Give him 50% likelihood on AA, 20% on any A, and 30% on smaller pair/junk.
winning vs. AA (and giving full credit on flopping winner and stacking)
.18(800)=144
losing vs. AA
.70(-750)=-525
A on board and fold
.12(-150)=-18
EV for 50% of time w/AA = -$399

20% on any A
A on flop (is 30% right? close? I vaguely remember reading something like this in a book when I just got hooked with NLHE, but can't track it down now that I want/need to know)
.3(150)=-45
He flops TPTK and gets stubborn (this should also capture other stacking possibilities)
.1(800)=80
You win on flop when he folds to your raise of his bet
.6(300)=180
EV for 20% of time vs. Ax =$215

30% vs. any two
He kills flop, you marry your hand and get stacked
.05(-750)=-37.5
You both kill flop, you win
.05(800)=40
He flops to your raise
.3(300)=90
He wisely checks his air (then folds) rather than continue the charade
.3(200)=60
EV for any two cards = $152.5

so, -$399(.5)+$215(.2)+$152.5(.3) = -$110.75

Obviously the most important question is how often he has AA when he makes this play. I doubt any player would do with less than AA more than 2/3 of the time. The second most important question is how often (in 30% case) is how often he does this holding QQ or JJ and how that impacts your EV.

So, even though a somewhat meaningful tweaking of the variables will make this marginally +EV, it will lead to more stack volatility than anything. Therefore, I fold this to an unknown, stack a LAG, and occasionally double someone when I'm too stubborn and don't hit my 20% win.

[JMa]

just fold preflop, isnt that ridiculously weak?

[ahnuld]

Had this line happen to me twice last week. Both times I check raised allin on ow flops. Both times I was called. First time the guy had AA and I lost, second time he had QQ and put it in drawing to 2 outs. They seem to have QQ KK JJ at least a third of the time to me, and I never worry about KK AA, so this line is really the only way to go against the normal unknown opponent.

[Leptyne]

See this link and the Limon post. Best advice I've seen, plus thorough discussion.

KK v Big Raise

That was a good post Leptyne, ty. Do you guys really agree that you have to go all-in no matter what with pocket kings if no ace flops? I just can't seem to remember too many huge all-in pots I've won with unimproved pocket kings preflop or after the flop, I think it's tough to get a decent player to give all their money to you with pocket Queens or worse, or Ace-Queen on a Queen high flop, unless maybe he's got under 50 BB's.

[ QUOTE ]
just fold preflop, isnt that ridiculously weak?

[/ QUOTE ]
So while the fold decision may seem that way, the math tells me that in many situations it's going to be the right play, especially when you're more familiar with your opponent. There are players who do this w/ AA because they can't stand having it cracked and there are players who do this because they also do it occasionally with other holdings. If you can bifurcate the two types and figure out how often your opponent comes over the top with an inferior holding, then your answer becomes more clear. If you can't, I'm simply saying it isn't as painful a fold as everyone seems to think.
As you may or may not know, your opponent will hold AA 1 out of every 22 or 23 times that you hold KK. And regardless of stakes levels, most opponents can't resist reraising HARD with AA. If you're getting reraised by said player consistently, it's an easy call - make him show you AA. If he's tight, give him the benefit of the doubt and cut your losses.
Point is, I don't like the mindset of semi-pot-committing myself preflop w/KK if I'm not in a tournament. Your opponent is telling you that he's ready to go in now.
Also, people who raise from $50 to $200 w/QQ or JJ are dead money anyway. I'll get it from them on another hand.

[ QUOTE ]
See this link and the Limon post. Best advice I've seen, plus thorough discussion.

KK v Big Raise

[/ QUOTE ]

While limon's analysis is good and the correct play (if you're not folding) for the hand posted on your link, it has less relevance here where Villain is reraising OOP. This makes it much more likely that a standard opponent has the goods.
On a dry board, hero will likely face an all-in bet or check-raise and will be pot-stuck.
The strategy and analysis should be the same: if you're going to call, you have to be planning to get it all in on a flop with no A. Pushing preflop makes the decision for Villain too easy.
When facing a stout reraise like this with KK, I do like to consider what my play would be if I held QQ or JJ. Does it pay to go for my set?
If you can say that your opponent is a good, tricky player and but will still turn up AA as little as 40% of the time when he does this, it's still a -EV call when facing a reraise that's 3x more to go and knocks out 1/5 of your chips (which, by the way, is a clever way of raising and saying: "just try to hit your set with your big pair").
I've made my rational and EV arguments, so I'm going to make this my last post on this thread unless someone can come up with something better than: YOU CAN'T FOLD KINGS PREFLOP!!!