KJo in LAGgy hand

[Aaron W.]

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First off, let me say that I don't think that checking the river is a bad play. I just think that betting is a better play when you consider how the hand was played up to that point. If hero bets the flop and gets 3 callers, then bets the turn and still gets 3 callers, then checking the river is the better play. But the way this hand was played, by betting the river, you are only risking the loss of one more bet for a chance to win a monster. If you check, you have absolutely NO CHANCE of winning this pot.

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The only chance I have of winning the pot is to show down the best hand. The question is whether I want to put money in by betting, by check-calling, check and hope for a free showdown, or not put money in by check-folding.

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The semi-bluff check rasie on the turn is a bold move but it is most effective when you follow through on the river.

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It's not a semi-bluff. It's a value check-raise. I'm trying to get everyone to put in two bets on the turn because I think I've got the best hand.

[Hashiell_Dammett]

How does the size of the pot justify betting the river? Do you think there's a non-zero chance of everyone folding (rounded to the nearest .1%, that is)? Do you think I'm ahead often enough when I get called?

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Yes. I think if button calls with K9 (or worse) there's 1 in 10 chance that a Td will fold. That is, assuming that someone has a Td. I would hate to have a pot this size get checked around and see some yahoo drag it with 3s 3d.

[Aaron W.]

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How does the size of the pot justify betting the river? Do you think there's a non-zero chance of everyone folding (rounded to the nearest .1%, that is)? Do you think I'm ahead often enough when I get called?

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Yes. I think if button calls with K9 (or worse) there's 1 in 10 chance that a Td will fold. That is, assuming that someone has a Td. I would hate to have a pot this size get checked around and see some yahoo drag it with 3s 3d.

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I don't think Td is going to fold the third nuts, especially at these levels. I don't know if I would fold the third nuts here because there are lots of strong hands that will make the call (staight, lower flushes, sets, two pair). Besides, why else would Td call the turn except to try to river the flush? [As I said in another post, I probably would have folded Td on the turn.] I think button calls with anything on the river that he would bet the turn with, except for maybe AK (maybe).

[SCfuji]

hey hash

interesting analysis but i still disagree. i agree that hero has little to no chance to win by checking but i also agree that hero has little to no chance to win by betting either because a worse hand wont fold unless one of the crazies decides to check raise with a naked king.

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This goes along with the cardinal rule of micro-limit: Anybody who has already put in one bet will certainly put in one more.

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and another cardinal rule: anybody that stuck around to that turn action is hardly ever going to fold to your river bet. this pot is quite large as you stated so the standards that the villains need to call your river bet are much lower than usual.

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And when they do call, the advertising value of your river bet with no diamonds will be worth far more than one BB.

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and with advertising value, well aaron's image is already shot to sh!t as he originally stated so losing most of a bb for that reason isn't that great. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

it is good you are thinking aggressively but wait for times when you arent against a large field with a hand you want to showdown that most likely got beat on the river and betting won't fold worse hands ever.

[Hashiell_Dammett]

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The only chance I have of winning the pot is to show down the best hand.

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Exactly! That's why I think betting is better then checking. What do you think the odds are that a 6d or a even a straight will overcall on the river?
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The question is whether I want to put money in by betting, by check-calling, check and hope for a free showdown, or not put money in by check-folding.

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I think your only options are bet/fold or check/fold. Do you think you can really check/call here? I think betting out is a better use of one last bet then a check/call.

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The semi-bluff check rasie on the turn is a bold move but it is most effective when you follow through on the river.

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It's not a semi-bluff. It's a value check-raise. I'm trying to get everyone to put in two bets on the turn because I think I've got the best hand.

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I agree whole heartily with you there. You probably do have the best hand at that point. There's an off chance that you're up against a set (in which case you're probably screwed no matter what you do or what comes on the river) But wheather it was intended or not, the check raise also acts as a bluff, representing the nut flush. But if you do not follow through on the river, you put yourself in tough spot, since checking the scare card might induce a bet from the laggy button. Since the fourth diamond is also a scare card for everybody else, following through with a bet on the river puts everyone else in a tough spot.

[milesdyson]

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What do you think the odds are that a 6d or a even a straight will overcall on the river?

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~100% of the time. the tiny % of the time they fold is because they misclicked.

middle pairs are calling this river - i don't see why you think people are going to fold flushes or straights. the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] regularly calls this river.

[Hashiell_Dammett]

Maybe I'm playing at the wrong site! LOL
At least once a day I see a large pot that has 5+ players go to the river only to fold when they missed whatever it was they were chasin'
Anyway, like I said. I think checking in situations like this is fine but betting is better. And truthfully, I might bet one day and check in the exact same situation on another day - a good example of Mike Caro's law of lose wiring I guess. (Am I allowed to mention a non 2+2 author at this forum?)

[milesdyson]

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At least once a day I see a large pot that has 5+ players go to the river only to fold when they missed whatever it was they were chasin'

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yeah and to assume they fold 1 card flushes or straights is making bad assumptions. these are the guys who call with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop and 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn with their gutshot to the worst hand in the world.

[car ramrod]

I think I like a turn bet, it looks like button will raise your bet, and face anyone with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with 2 cold. I doubt anyone folds a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but I would like to try. I would also like to get any straight draws to face 2.

You will also get to 3bet what I think is likely the best hand.

[Aaron W.]

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The only chance I have of winning the pot is to show down the best hand.

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Exactly! That's why I think betting is better then checking. What do you think the odds are that a 6d or a even a straight will overcall on the river?

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Much smaller than you think. I think the odds of getting a lone diamond to fold in a gigantic pot are on the order of 99:1 against. There could be two diamonds hanging around, which means that I might have a 1/10000 chance of folding out flushes to win the pot. The pot isn't big enough to make that play.

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The question is whether I want to put money in by betting, by check-calling, check and hope for a free showdown, or not put money in by check-folding.

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I think your only options are bet/fold or check/fold. Do you think you can really check/call here? I think betting out is a better use of one last bet then a check/call.

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I don't think check-calling is very smart, either. I might do it if aggro villain bets and the other two fold. I'm not going to be very happy with a check-overcall.

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The semi-bluff check rasie on the turn is a bold move but it is most effective when you follow through on the river.

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It's not a semi-bluff. It's a value check-raise. I'm trying to get everyone to put in two bets on the turn because I think I've got the best hand.

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I agree whole heartily with you there. You probably do have the best hand at that point. There's an off chance that you're up against a set (in which case you're probably screwed no matter what you do or what comes on the river) But wheather it was intended or not, the check raise also acts as a bluff, representing the nut flush. But if you do not follow through on the river, you put yourself in tough spot, since checking the scare card might induce a bet from the laggy button. Since the fourth diamond is also a scare card for everybody else, following through with a bet on the river puts everyone else in a tough spot.

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A river bet would *BE* a bluff. The turn check-raise bears almost no resemblance to a bluff because I'm not trying to get anyone to fold the turn, it doesn't effectively encourage anyone to fold on the turn, and it will not help me to get folds on any future streets.

Again, I think you don't have a good estimate on villains. The player who will lay down a set are few and far between. The player who will lay down a 1 card flush in a gigantic pot are few and far between.

Here's the basic logic. If they called the turn bet and turn check-raise with a lone diamond (weak as it may be), why would they not call the river bet when their hand comes in? The spot is tough for them insofar as they won't be happy to call. But it's not tough in that there's really any room for debate in their mind as to how they will play the hand. They're going to call.