Overbet bluff, NL$400 - Page 2

soah · #11 11-19-2005, 05:39 PM

If you think you need to make a big bluff on the river to win the pot, then why bother calling the flop raise?

If you want to overbet bluff the river, $200 would work just as well as $340, but it has to work much less often. $200 is still a significant overbet and most decent players will be very picky about what they call it with.

wtfsvi · #12 11-20-2005, 02:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you need to make a big bluff on the river to win the pot, then why bother calling the flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ] I figured there was a decent enough chance he was on overcards to justify the call. Since I expected him to shut down on the turn and probably not bet the river either, if he didn't have anything. (I'm not sure I'm behind when I make the river push though, but I feel the only hand in his hand range that can call me is JJ (and just maybe 88 is in there, but I doubt it). And no more money is going into a pot I win at showdown. (I can't value bet, and I can't check call.)

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to overbet bluff the river, $200 would work just as well as $340, but it has to work much less often. $200 is still a significant overbet and most decent players will be very picky about what they call it with.

[/ QUOTE ] I think this is correct. About 2xpot will work close to as often as the push.

soah · #13 11-20-2005, 03:09 AM

If you think you're ahead at the river then why bluff?

wtfsvi · #14 11-20-2005, 03:21 AM

I don't think I am ahead. I think I might very well be ahead. Like maybe 25% of the time.

edit: Probably a bit less than 25% given the jack might've hit him.

soah · #15 11-20-2005, 05:35 AM

Well, it still brings me back to my first question -- why do you call the flop raise if you feel you must bluff to win? You can't call the flop raise because you think you're ahead and then get to the river and decide you must bluff. That just doesn't make any sense.

Lucky · #16 11-20-2005, 05:44 AM

Not a bad play, prob bet less on river as others have said.

Also, something to think about. If you're a 40/30 player, you're much more likely to get called here than a straightforward player. You're going to maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

wtfsvi · #17 11-20-2005, 11:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it still brings me back to my first question -- why do you call the flop raise if you feel you must bluff to win? You can't call the flop raise because you think you're ahead and then get to the river and decide you must bluff. That just doesn't make any sense.

[/ QUOTE ] I don't have to think I'm ahead to call the flop raise. It lays me better odds than 1 to 1. And as I stated earlier, I didn't estimate the reverse implied odds (or in this case, the chance I get blown off my hand by a worse hand, since I'm folding to another bet), to be very high. Folding to the flop raise might very well be correct since this guy is a bit passive, and there is of course always a chance he'll bet again with a worse hand (+ he'll have outs when he is behind, I won't), but I didn't think it was at the time.

wtfsvi · #18 11-20-2005, 11:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ahnuld · #19 11-20-2005, 12:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

For this reason, I like the push better than potting it. Not bad hand at all. If i were him, maybe I woulda folded a flush, which im guessing he called you with.

ginko · #20 11-20-2005, 01:07 PM

Well imagine from his point of view. Why would you bet into the PF raiser with trips? The most common play is a check call or check raise.

He raised you, you just called. A bad player isn't smart enough to betcall, checkraise turn.

Maybe you aren't as good of a player as you think. Calling a raise with 89s out of position against a solid player is probably not very good poker. I mean, you even admit his PFR is only 5% so his range is something like, JJ-AA, AK-AQ.

He has an overpair or maybe the nutflush draw, or hes an idiot and he thinks his AK is good.