On the river in my boat

QTip · #1 09-21-2005, 03:46 PM

MP1 was quite loose and rather passive

CO was fairly tight with a small PF raising range and way too passive postflop up to this point.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO 3-bets

You ??

@bsolute_luck · #2 09-21-2005, 03:50 PM

umm...i'd hate to fold in this big pot but CO wakes up on a 5?! he's got Jacks or Tens and you're screwed. and a loose/passive is capping: the unlikely quads?! you got me, but i can't see us winning this hand.

SeaEagle · #3 09-21-2005, 03:55 PM

I'm not good enough to fold this because I hate having to put my head in the oven, turn on the gas, and light a match as punishment for folding when I would have won a 33BB pot.

But, really, you're never winning here.

QTip · #4 09-21-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
umm...i'd hate to fold in this big pot but CO wakes up on a 5?! he's got Jacks or Tens and you're screwed. and a loose/passive is capping: the unlikely quads?! you got me, but i can't see us winning this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh....there's that beeping noise...you have to press a button...

peterchi · #5 09-21-2005, 04:09 PM

Wow

Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

So CO probably has a retardedly-played JJ or TT.

But it could also be a retardely-played AA-QQ. I think that chance warrants a call.

Because I too would stick my head in the oven if we fold the best hand here.

ErrantNight · #6 09-21-2005, 04:17 PM

cry. trust me, you don't think it's a button, but it's a button.

QTip · #7 09-21-2005, 04:22 PM

Anyone care to put some substance to an answer (that sounded harsh...didn't mean it that way). Just some odds and %s that we're good.

SeaEagle · #8 09-21-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there's almost always 3 boats floating in this river.

MP1 hasn't slowed down since he saw the flop. It's likely he had a set from the flop, but maaaaaybe he was capping all the way w/ 2 pair and made his boat on the river. Most likely a set though, because QT says he's passive.

CO has JJ or TT or 55, all the time.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a plausible scenario in which QT is winning. MP1 has 65 and CO has AA (and thinks the river counterfeited his opponents' two pair)? Or maybe CO just suffered a severe case of stupidity-tilt and is bluffing at the pot because he's tired of his AA losing every-damn-party-poker-is-rigged time?

With 30 seconds to decide, I'm panicking and calling this river. But you're probably looking at a capped pot and 10-1 pot odds and, with time to think about it, you're not good anywhere near 9% of the time and can safely fold this.

RatFink · #9 09-21-2005, 04:46 PM

If you need a rationale to call and he truly is passive post-flop, then let's say he has AA/KK/QQ, he can't figure out all the aggression on the flop and isn't folding. On the river he feels he counterfeited two-pair holdings and the flush he feared missed and wakes up.

So if his PFR range is < 5 and he would have folded AdKd instead of hari-kari bluff 3-bet the river with it, then you are ahead of AA, KK, QQ and behind to JJ, TT and as all of these may 3-bet this river I have to call and then see MP1's quad fives.

@bsolute_luck · #10 09-21-2005, 05:05 PM

i just frickin' call. i'd rather piss away 2BBs in this big pot than live with the guilt of folding and missing out on 27+BBs [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

AA or KK could play this way...i guess. MP1 has got me stumped- he doesn't have TT, so JJ or maybe 2 pair, or maybe he even has AA-QQ???

bah! arg! doh! i just throw up my hands in confusion and call this blasted ludacris hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]