Situation Books Dont Cover, Right Move?

sMethod · #1 05-13-2005, 12:55 PM

I was playing in my local 9-18 game when a hand came up i was in mid pos with 44 3 limpers in front the guy directly behind me mucked his hand and it fliped over exposing 64 leaving 1 four left in the deck. button raised and the five players in front of me called now I have a choice call with 1 out in the deck or save a small bet? im getting 13 to 1 with 6 players in for 2 bets and my single bet but there is only 1 four of the 48 cards left what are the long run implications of calling here. In reality I folded and a 4 hit the flop and I wold have taken down a monster that these guys build with pairs and draws. I was seeing the best result possible for calling in front of my eyes so my decision didnt seem as correct. Will all those 9$ calls add up to more than what I can expect to win if i hit my 1 outer? It seems simple but I have never done any research on this subject and it can not be solved with simple math. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

pokerjo22 · #2 05-13-2005, 01:02 PM

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and it can not be solved with simple math

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OK, I'll try and avoid any calculus in my working out.

You need 1 card out of 48. You're gonna get three chances on the flop (i.e. 3 out of 48 or 1 out of 16). At 13:1 you should call. The money you'll make from your set will almost certainly make up those three extra bets. It was close, but it was a call IMHO.

chief444 · #3 05-13-2005, 01:32 PM

Why can't it be solved with simple math?

You'll catch the remaining 4... 1-49/50*48/49*47/48 = .06% of the time.

You're getting 13:1 or 1/14 = .07% odds.

With implied odds here you should probably have called.

Obviously you probably couldn't have figured this out at the table but now you know.

pokerjo22 · #4 05-13-2005, 02:03 PM

He already knows four cards (not two)

chief444 · #5 05-13-2005, 02:06 PM

OK, so .062%. Easier call.

Octopus · #6 05-13-2005, 02:25 PM

To figure this out at the table, realize that if you are a little over 8-1 to hit a set on the flop with 2 cards out, then 16.5-1 is pretty close to the odds to hit on the flop with 1 card out.

TheHip41 · #7 05-13-2005, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was playing in my local 9-18 game when a hand came up i was in mid pos with 44 3 limpers in front the guy directly behind me mucked his hand and it fliped over exposing 64 leaving 1 four left in the deck. button raised and the five players in front of me called now I have a choice call with 1 out in the deck or save a small bet? im getting 13 to 1 with 6 players in for 2 bets and my single bet but there is only 1 four of the 48 cards left what are the long run implications of calling here. In reality I folded and a 4 hit the flop and I wold have taken down a monster that these guys build with pairs and draws. I was seeing the best result possible for calling in front of my eyes so my decision didnt seem as correct. Will all those 9$ calls add up to more than what I can expect to win if i hit my 1 outer? It seems simple but I have never done any research on this subject and it can not be solved with simple math. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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You also have to take into account the times you flop a weak draw. In a 14SB pot, if the flop is 763, or 256, or 235, you would have odds to peel one off. This is a tough situation to be in.

My question is, did you call the first bet before or after you saw the 4 mucked?

sMethod · #8 05-13-2005, 02:39 PM

Ok I should have figured my 1/13 vs my 1/16 was probably an ok call but what about with a few less when do implied odds no longer make up for the odds im getting. With such a low pair I need a set to continue in the hand and even after hitting my set theres no gurantee its going to be the best hand. So if i only had 5 callers and was getting 11-1 we might be looking at folding

Octopus · #9 05-13-2005, 02:43 PM

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Ok I should have figured my 1/13 vs my 1/16 was probably an ok call but what about with a few less when do implied odds no longer make up for the odds im getting. With such a low pair I need a set to continue in the hand and even after hitting my set theres no gurantee its going to be the best hand. So if i only had 5 callers and was getting 11-1 we might be looking at folding

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Depends on how aggressive the table was post-flop. (Aggressive tables make sets very happy. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

SeaEagle · #10 05-13-2005, 03:00 PM

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So if i only had 5 callers and was getting 11-1 we might be looking at folding

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You'll flop a set one of 17 times, so you need to make up 16sb or 8bb when you do flop it (actually you need to make a little more to account for the times you flop a set and still lose). With 13sb already in the pot this is a no-brainer call. With 11sb in the pot, you still only need to make 2.5bb when you hit and I would think it's an easy call. At 4 callers and 9bb already in, 3.5bb required in implied odds, you're probably still OK to call but it's getting borderline.