South Florida +1 @ Pittsburgh POTW #7

[MyTurn2Raise]

Hey all, I didn't like much this week so I went looking at the bottom-feeders and found South Florida +1 @ Pittsburgh. OK, so it's at Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh demolished South Florida last year 43-14. This year, the teams are very very different.

This is not last year's 8-4 Pitt Panthers.
Sat, Sep 3 (9) Notre Dame L 21-42
Fri, Sep 9 at Ohio L 10-16
Sat, Sep 17 at Nebraska L 6-7
Sat, Sep 24 (15) Youngstown State W 41-0
Fri, Sep 30 at Rutgers L 29-37
Sat, Oct 8 Cincinnati W 38-20
Thank gosh Youngstown State (lower division) and Cincy (the worst team in the Big East) were on the schedule. A couple of tough losses against the Huskers and Bobcats, but losses nonetheless.

By contrast, This year's South Florida team is much better than the 4-7 team from last season.
Sat, Sep 3 at (8) Penn State L 13-23 --
Sat, Sep 10 Florida A&M W 37-3 --
Sat, Sep 17 UCF W 31-14 --
Sat, Sep 24 (19) Louisville W 45-14 --
Sat, Oct 1 at (7) Miami (FL) L 7-27 --
Penn State and Miami on the road are a bit tougher than Pitt, but the lack of road wins is a bit troubling.

This game will not be a pretty one for those of you that like offensive fireworks. The Bulls put up 348 ypg (over 200 on the ground) and limit opponents to 308 ypg. The Pitt Offense puts up 350 ypg and holds opponents to 315 ypg.

While it looks like a statistical tie, there are 2 big observations. First, the Pitt D is great at holding down the passing game but so-so against the run. Pitt gives up over 160ypg on the ground. Look for the S Florida team to attack here big time. Second, the Bulls stats are against higher calibur opponents. A team that's averaging over 200 on the ground in 5 games with two of those games being Penn St and Miami is very impressive.

Also, Pitt has Wanny. That's no good.

I look for the Bulls run game to be the difference in a 17-9 shootout. My pick of the week is South Florida +1@ Pitt

FYI-I'm 9-3 YTD on my 2+2 recommendations. My POTW is 5-1. Too bad they don't pay for margin of victory verse line, I've racked up some big wins.

Luckily, there is no Illini game this week to drag me down.

[sage]

Kudos on the excellent record you've racked up on college football MyTurn. Great in depth analysis week after week. Keep up the good work.

[PittRounder]

I graduated from Pitt a year ago, and go to/watch every game. We are absolutely dreadful this year on both sides of the ball, and while I know little about USF this year, watching our previous performances allow me to predict USF as the lock of the century.

If only I could bet against Pitt. I'll be in the A lot at Heinz field with a throwback Marino jersey on and an Oktoberfest in hand depressed about a season lost.

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]

Too bad they don't pay for margin of victory verse line, I've racked up some big wins.


[/ QUOTE ]

Many live books do offer this wager. Its called action points or lightning points. But, the wager is as you describe.

You would say ... "S. Florida at 100 a point." You win/lose the margin v. the spread.

[MyTurn2Raise]

apologies to all...this pick sucked