Poll Accuracy? A look back to election eve 2000.

[sam h]

Here is something I just grabbed off the daily kos web site. Note that for about half the states, the final result was 3 or percentage points different than the last poll.

This election is coming down to the wire, and we simply aren't going to be able to predict the final result very well with polling data.

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Arizona: Last poll showed Bush up by 10 points, outside the margin of error. Bush won by 6.

Arkansas: The last three, concurrent, polls showed a tie, Bush by 1 and Bush by 3, respectively. Bush won by 6.

California: Also three polls, showing Gore up only by 3, 5 and 7, respectively. Gore won by roughly 12.

Delaware: Last poll had Bush up by 4. Gore won by 13. Great poll, guys.

Florida: The last poll, Zogby's, showed Gore up 3. Well, you know what happened.

Iowa: Two last polls showed Gore up by 1 and 2 points, respectively. Gore won by a hair.

Maine: Last poll showed a 42-42 tie. Gore won by 5.

Michigan: Last poll showed Gore up by 7, but still within the margin of error. Gore won by 4.

Missouri: A split. Of the two last polls, one showed Gore up 1 point and the other showed Bush up 4. Bush won by 4.

Nevada: Last poll had Bush up by 4. Bush won by 3.

New Hampshire: Last poll had Bush up big, by 10. Bush only won by a hair.

New Mexico: Two last polls showed a tie and Bush up by 3, respectively. Gore won narrowly.

Ohio: Two last polls, one by Zogby (who was right on nationally), showed Bush up by 9 and 10, both outside the margin of error. Gore lost by 4.

Oregon: A split. Last two polls showed Gore up by 1 and down by 4, respectively. Gore won by a fraction of a percent.

Pennsylvania: Last poll showed Gore up by 2. Gore won by 4.

Tennessee: The writing was on the wall. Two last polls showed Bush up by 4. Bush won by 3.

Virginia: Last poll showed Bush up by 6. Bush won by 7.

Washington: Last poll showed Gore up by 4. He won by 5.

West Virginia: Of three last polls, two showed Bush up by 10 points, and one had Bush up only by 2. Bush won by 6.

Wisconsin: Last poll showed Bush up by 2. Gore won by a hair.

Less interesting:

Polls showed Bush way ahead in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

Gore was way ahead in Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.


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[Nepa]

I gotta go looking for the link but I believe the only one that was pretty much dead on last election was John Zogby. He predicted that Gore would win the popular vote but might lose the electoral college. The funny thing is that the same thing could happen to Bush.

[SinCityGuy]

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I gotta go looking for the link but I believe the only one that was pretty much dead on last election was John Zogby. He predicted that Gore would win the popular vote but might lose the electoral college. The funny thing is that the same thing could happen to Bush.

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Zogby was very close in the popular vote, with Gore slightly ahead in the final poll. Most of the big name outfits like Gallup had Bush ahead by 6 to 7 points on election eve, 2000.

[$DEADSEXE$]

There was no polls over the final weekend of the election.
Thus they did not see the bump Gore got the last three days of the election