Oil Companies Doing Their Job

[ddollevoet]

[ QUOTE ]
The article I linked to -- which you apparently didn't bother to read -- suggests that prices are about to go up, and probably significantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

This article makes no such claim that prices are about to go up. Did you read it?

Rather, it states that gas prices have been trending downward for the last 80 years and offers some suggestions as to how the prices could be pushed even lower by adopting an energy strategy that is less dependent on Middle Eastern countries.

[cardcounter0]

Hawk59 using capitalism and more specifically price-taker markets and futures says the price will be lower.

ddollevoet using a middle east supply side approach says the price will be about the same (adjusted for inflation).

Armchair using MSNBC and a DOE pamphlet says the price will probably be higher, and probably much higher.

Any one else want to predict the price of retail gas after the November elections?

>>>>>>

Myself, using the tin-foil-hat method, thinks gas will continue lower, actually dipping below $1.80 until November 20th, when it will rise very dramatically to $2.20

[adios]

You're right the price of oil has nothing to do with supply and demand.

[lu_hawk]

I don't know if the price will actually be lower, right now the curve going out is inverted on wholesale gas meaning that the market is predicting it will decrease over time. however, the entire curve has been shifting up.

What I do know is that the price will be driven by supply and demand, not by a conspiracy to keep prices low for Bush. The big oil companies would not be able to do it if they wanted.

[cardcounter0]

Okay, hawk59 might want to revise his prediction. I can't tell. It seems we have curves going out. Wait! Make that an inverted curve going out, but we also have an entire curve shifting up.

So the inverted outgoing upward shifting curve ball method, says that the lower price of oil we are currently seeing is an illusion.

The Oil Companies would be unable to make the price of oil lower before than election, so the lower prices we are seeing are, are, are ..... Would you like to borrow my tin-foil hat?

[lu_hawk]

OK now you're being annoying. The price will depend on supply and demand, that is all. Any other ideas are silly. End of story.

[vulturesrow]

He never made a prediction, was merely trying to point out to you the complexities of the market price for a volatile commodity such as gasoline. His discussion of the curves makes perfect sense to anyone with a degree of knowledge about economics. It was already pointed out what the source of the currently low prices are. I cant quite figure out what you are confused about.

[cardcounter0]

vulturesrow using advanced economic knowledge claims it is impossible to venture an estimate of the future price of gasoline, because it is a complex volatile commodity.

He will be disqualified from the race, but could get a position in the Bush Administration, as he can't see or predict how current actions or conditions could possibly effect the future.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

So far we have:
1) price could go up or down, maybe.
2) price is going down and has always gone down.
3) price is going up.

and of course, my very specific below $1.80 over $2.20 by end of November.

[MMMMMM]

cardcounter0,


Highly sophisticated and very deep pockets from all over the world trade gasoline futures on the NYMEX. If prices get too far out of line, even if U.S. companies are unnaturally pushing them down, the differential will likely be noticed and bargain hunters will snap up the bargains to be unloaded later at a profit.

Your conspiracy theory regarding prices which trade on huge world markets doesn't hold much water. Manipulation can only work to a certain extent and then the larger market forces take over--and nothing can stop the larger market forces.

Now, you might well be correct that gasoline prices will rise a great deal in November. If you are pretty sure that this is true then the thing for you to do is to buy gasoline futures on the NYMEX, and/or buy call options on gasoline futures, and make a killing when prices rise greatly. Heck you might not have to work for the rest of your life if you are tremendously right on this.

[cardcounter0]

I'm sorry, I didn't see a prediction for the post-election retail price of gasoline in your post.

You can't participate in the race if you won't enter the starting gate.

As far as your deep pocket trading strategy goes, I don't think it really matters to future traders if the price goes up or down. All that matters is that it MOVES. They can make money in either direction on every tick.