JJ facing ace on turn

dave44 · #1 12-09-2004, 01:04 PM

Ace on the turn is a scary card as you would think at least one of the four was calling with overcards.
UTG+2 and SB are both loose players.
This is MP3's first hand at the table so no reads.
Against an unknown, is this a call down or a fold?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero ???

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #2 12-09-2004, 01:11 PM

It's close, but I think the pot's big enough that you ight want to see a showdown. I think the best play here is to raise the turn and check behind on the river...this way if you are ahead, you might be able to drive out SB and UTG+2 and give your hand a better chance to stand up. If you get 3-bet on the turn it's an easy laydown.

btspider · #3 12-09-2004, 01:13 PM

and if he bets the river?

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #4 12-09-2004, 01:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and if he bets the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold.

VBM · #5 12-09-2004, 02:16 PM

man, a lot of scary river cards to come. any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], any 4 or 5, any overcard, even your J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] maybe no good.

you can probably force out naked K's and Q's out and chop down odds on straight draws by raising, but no 4-flush is going to lay down though and if MP3 has a Ax, he's not going anywhere either.

i can't believe i'm saying this, but i'm leaning towards folding and waiting for a better spot. raising may force out SB & UTG+1, but you're still drawing slim vs so many hands that MP3 could have and you can't force a laydown here by MP3 immediately w/ a raise.

he could bet so many cards on the river (he may feel trapped and compelled to play this way anyways) and you would have to lay down there anyhow...

if you choose to raise:
either raise the turn & fold to a 3-bet,
or raise the turn & if he calls & check/fold the river.

i think i'd fold.

the Micro-weakling,
--olliejen.

Goon2 · #6 12-09-2004, 02:33 PM

I hate JJ because of hands like this. It's a profitable hand, sure, but you have to make several tough decisions with it.

I am not sure the size of the pot is the biggest factor in making this decision. After all, if the bot is big it's because people like their hands and will bet/raise -- which means you'll be deciding whether to put one bet in a small pot or multiple bets in a big pot.

I think, as you have identified, the bigger queestion is what you'll plan to do on the river if you call the turn?

The obvious fact is that you're probably behind to an A, giving you a measly 2 outs, only one of which is squeaky clean. That's a 22.5:1 shot on the turn, 11.25:1 by the river.

Is it worth one bet to win 7.5 bets on a 22.5:1 shot? No. Is it worth two bets to win 8.5 on an 11.5:1 shot? No.
You can't continue. Fold the flop.

Remember, folding for one bet in large, multiway pots is the evil. Here, the pot isn't large, it's not multiway, and you have only 2 outs. I'd fold it.

wyattjames4 · #7 12-09-2004, 03:05 PM

The obvious fact is that you're probably behind to an A, giving you a measly 2 outs, only one of which is squeaky clean. That's a 22.5:1 shot on the turn, 11.25:1 by the river.
Is it worth one bet to win 7.5 bets on a 22.5:1 shot? No. Is it worth two bets to win 8.5 on an 11.5:1 shot? No.
You can't continue. Fold the flop.

did we read the same hand? didnt the ace come on the turn? you are the only preflop raiser so with a big overpair you have to bet the flop. id say your good 99% of the time to a rainbow flop with 3 undercards and no reraises preflop. ok then an ace comes on the turn and you get bet into. decision time right. well i say raise or fold. but if you do raise. making the pot 9.5 or more BB, why would you fold the river for one bet. if your plan is to fold the river unless you can check it down or you hit one of your two outs, then fold it now on the turn. like you said folding on the river for one bet in a large pot is a major no no.

dave44 · #8 12-11-2004, 04:24 PM

I folded, but I hate being uncertain whether I've made the right move or not.

Shillx · #9 12-11-2004, 05:21 PM

Yeah this is a textbook example to use that play. In these spots, the turn raise is the last bet you put into the pot.

Shill