Phil's soooooooooo lucky

[sleepyjoeyt]

I'd like to put into play a concept that is not being considered.

(Also, try not to write condescendingly in response, stating that I just don't get standard deviation. I have taken multiple classes on the topic in college and do understand it.)

The further out on the curve a stated event is (for example, going from flipping a coin 100 times and having it come up heads every time as compared to doing the same thing 1000 times), the less likely this is just random distribution and the more likely it is that the event is occurring for other reasons unknown to the sampler.

For example, as in the case of flipping the coin, if Tom flipped a coin (in my presence) 10 times and correctly called heads every time I'd probably say that this is an example of just good old-fashioned, horseshoe up the ass luck.

However, if Tom that did it a hundred times, I'd accuse him of cheating and be fairly certain I was correct.

If Tom did it 1000 times I'd kick him in the nuts for wasting my time.

Now, which is more likely. That Phil is way the f out there on the curve to the point that it is actually laughable that he is doing this well? Or that he knows something about what he does, and maybe tries to look like an ass, puts out books that make no sense, and cries like a baby when he doesn't get what he wants for some other purpose?

I am confident that he is an extremely talented tournament player. But that is not the point of my post.

My question is, is there some point in his success where, despite his continued appearance of being clueless and acting like a 6-year old, that the naysayers out there will say that maybe he's pretty good.

There HAS TO BE some point.

What if he won the next 6 world series championships?

Still just lucky?

Now I know that he will not win the next 6 WSOP titles. BUT ASSUME FOR THE SAKE OF THIS POST THAT HE DID.

Still lucky but now lucky with a little skill?

It is a given that anyone would have to be extremely lucky to accomplish this task but at what point does it turn into him being pretty good?

If someone cut the deck once and called the exact card prior to doing so, that's pretty lucky.

If he does it three times in a row, maybe he's got a trick.

If he does it ten times in a row, CHECK THE DECK.

Just my thoughts.

Fire away.