this stuff pisses me off

[Willluck]

I've heard a lot of arguments for raising the turn on this board, and a few for raising the flop.
I think the best play is to raise and cap the flop, because that way a pair of tens will call you down most likely, and anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand. Not to mention you charge those flush draws an extra sb. Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO).

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]
Many times a T will call down after the turn c/r, even if you don't have a particularly aggressive image. I agree that I'd call a 3bet and fold river, though, which sucks, even if it is correct. Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair?

[wdcbooks]

You know I would have three bet you on the river too, and not necessarily with a hand that is beating yours. From the way you played it I would put you on a flush draw that tried to buy the pot on the end.

By just calling along you gave the impression that you are on a draw and your river bet screams of a steal. It's only because you know what you have that you didn't see it that way. A river call here is mandatory. I think you are good nearly half the time.

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn.


[/ QUOTE ] If you cap the flop, they aren't leading the turn often enough with a worse hand to justify calling.
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]
Many times a T will call down after the turn raise , even if you don't have a particularly aggressive image. I agree that I'd call a 3bet and fold river, though, which sucks, even if it is correct. Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair?

[/ QUOTE ] true, sometimes a T will call down after a turn raise, but I think 75% of the time it is being folded. When I think more about it now, a turn raise is best if you fold to a 3-bet. In my experience a 3-bet here is a set or KT.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]
Board: Ks Ts 5d 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { KhJd }
Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { KTs, K8s, K5s, KTo, K8o, K5o }

Assume you call a 3bet and call the river bet, so you put in 2 more on the turn 1 on the river:

.86 * 3 = -2.58BB

Pot will be 9.5BB on river not counting the 3 you put in.

.136 * 9.5 = 1.29

1.29-2.58 = -1.28 BB.

So you lose -1.28BB when he has 2 pair here.

x is % of the time he has 2 pair:
So 1.28x = 9.5(1-x)
10.78x = 9.5
x = .88
So he needs 2 pair here >88% of the time to make 3betting -EV.

[xwillience]

sorry im really confused.. im new to short handed play and i only play 3/6 but i dont get why u played it so passively and at least the river seems like a call at the very least

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
You know I would have three bet you on the river too, and not necessarily with a hand that is beating yours. From the way you played it I would put you on a flush draw that tried to buy the pot on the end.

By just calling along you gave the impression that you are on a draw and your river bet screams of a steal. It's only because you know what you have that you didn't see it that way. A river call here is mandatory. I think you are good nearly half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]3-betting would be a big mistake if you had a pair and thought I was bluffing. Of course some donks don't realize this. I would never say I am good nearly half the time but possibly ahead here 10% of the time, making this a tough river play. I'm surprised your the first to mention the way I actually played the hand. More comments on this subject from others would be appreciated.

By waiting for the river you lose value against a worse pair when the draw makes it and you just call, raise this turn - or flop depending on your history/current image with this villain.

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry im really confused.. im new to short handed play and i only play 3/6 but i dont get why u played it so passively and at least the river seems like a call at the very least

[/ QUOTE ]basically, in this situation when a player leads into me here, I give their hand strength very little credit and I wanted them to keep betting their junk to the river.
edit: word choice issue.

[CIncyHR]

I raise the flop. I think yo ulose less chips when youre behind, and win more if hes a calling station donkey. Assuming he just calls the turn, checking behind and betting hte river are close.