Easy Fold, Right?

Just need to reafirm this for myself. Villain was a 30/7/1.2 type. I'm dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the CO. I raise, 2 folds, Villain calls in the BB.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet, Villain calls

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet, Villain raises

[Lmn55d]

I think it's good. Guys with those stats don't checkraise bluff or even semibluff too much on the turn. So best case is you are splitting. Those guys also dont 3bet big aces a lot. A9+ is ahead of you (you do have splitting outs against a lot).

I think it's a good fold though against this player.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's good. Guys with those stats don't checkraise bluff or even semibluff too much on the turn. So best case is you are splitting. Those guys also dont 3bet big aces a lot. A9+ is ahead of you (you do have splitting outs against a lot).

ONly AK and AQ are ahead right now.

I think it's a good fold though against this player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
A9+ is ahead of you

[/ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same board? That's an 8 on the turn, not a queen. A9 has a small freeroll to break the chop.

[Lmn55d]

yup you're right, I misread the board. I think it's a lot closer now.

[StellarWind]

The problem here is the lockup on the board makes this a very easy checkraise with Ax versus a PFR. Villain has a very high probability of having at least the chop in hand and there are many pocket pairs, queen hands, and draws that will pay off.

It's easy to look at the guy's stats and sneer but it doesn't tell us what we need to know. Some tight/passives are terrible. Others have a really good eye for cards and good hand reading skills. They are just timid about committing money before they see most of the cards and/or they enjoy trapping people.

It's common for these players' stats to show a clear progression of increasing aggression on each successive street. They gain confidence as they figure out who has the best hand and begin counterattacking.

If you think this guy can play then you need to call him down. If he's a dunce or an all-street nutpeddler then give it up. But an AF of 1.2 is quite a bit for a player who habitually assumes a passive position before the flop. It says to me that he may actually be pretty aggressive on the big streets.

Based on the information provided this is a close decision. Folding is OK.

Not only is that excellent analysis, but "all-street nutpeddler" is easily one of the funniest things I've heard today. Thank you.

[roy_miami]

I usually check the turn when I get called on an Ace high flop and I have a weak kicker whether the board pairs or not. In this situation with the board pairing and us now splitting with most other aces I see no reason to bet the turn except for metagame reasons.

Idiot chasers, queens (primarily), and the FD. Those are some reasons. When the Q pairs here I'm usually inclined to check behind, not so with the 8.