KK, wise or insane laydown?

[wowacedude]

UTG is my dream neighbour, loose passive, a gun threat wont make him fold, very predictable. 55/7 0.4/0.7/1.5

BB is a TAG. dont know if he is good or bad.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: wad is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">wad raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, wad calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, wad folds.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

this sure looks crazy, but at the table i really thought this was the best thing to do.
i know this is going to get tons of comments about how easy calldown it is.
but please, if you answer, please put some thoughts in about it.

i put the TAG on something i beat, i see the donk as something not that strong, maybe some PP, maybe even AK that wants max 2 bets to go in on flop. on the other hand it can be something like 22 or 33, that wants to bet-3bet, not that likely tho, i dont think he is that good.

when UTG raised i think it 95% of the time it is 22, trips or 88, 83 or something.

flame away!

-Per

[jba]

wow. insert flame about folding here.


raise the flop. your equity edge on the flop is so high that I don't think you will be able to make it up on the later streets.

i think most tags are raising here either to get you out or because they hit somthing. even 44 could wait and raise this turn.

i dont think its close.

[Raza]

I agree with jba that you must raise the flop. This in turn will make the hand easier to play I think. If after raising the flop, both opps call, and the turn action goes bet, raise, a fold is much easier given the strength you've shown, and their continued aggression. Likewise, if it's check check to you on the turn, you bet, and you get check raised by the loose passive, that's a serious sign you're beaten as well. Getting checkraised by the TAG doesn't necessarily mean you are beat, so in that case I would see a showdown.

[Kumubou]

[ QUOTE ]
i think most tags are raising here either to get you out or because they hit somthing. even 44 could wait and raise this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Except the LPP is raising the turn, not the TAG. Typically when a passive player calls the flop and raises the turn like that, you're toast.

You really need to raise the flop, though. Not doing so is just pissing away bets.

-K

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
i think most tags are raising here either to get you out or because they hit somthing. even 44 could wait and raise this turn.

i dont think its close.

[/ QUOTE ]


your post is as confusing as your avatar is hot

[hiflyer51]

I agree raising the flop will make this hand easier to play, the bets on the turn [after your call on the flop], could easily be overpairs to the board. If you raise the flop, and the betting is bet and raise to you on the turn, then you are probably beat.

[imported_leader]

I'd fold the way you played it, but not raising the flop is really criminal.

[wdcbooks]

I really hate this fold. I hate it like my ex-wife, I hate like I hate the 1986 Boston Celtics. A guy with those stats that you define as passive, which he is, is also by definition clueless. His motivations for doing things aren't based on math or logic or hand reading.

His stats are about what you would get from a guy who only raised top pair. Even if he is clueless he knows you don't have a three, and figures his eight is good. Clueless players peel most flops, even with something like 89o. If he has A8 here (which I would say is his most likely holding) I am sure he thinks he is gold.

I would raise the turn, possibly cap if it is three bet and lead or call the river. BB isn't a concern. He is just doing the old 'I called in the BB so I will represent a three'. You could be beat here, but I think your chances are closer to 10% than 95%. Even a guy who plays 55% of his hands doesn't play many 3x hands except for A3.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the way you played it, but not raising the flop is really criminal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd 3-bet the way he played it.