So I thought I should fold my boat...

[MrWookie47]

Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Show me a logical range that bets this river given his plays throughout. Are the hands you beat 12% of that range?

Think about what he thinks you have. How often is he betting AQ or AJ here?

[Nfinity]

It's not a matter of making you fold, it's a matter of making you incorrect to call.

[MrWookie47]

I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you giving him a to broad of a "junk" holding standard.

You can safely rule out a lot of "junk" based primarily on his Turn play.

I'm not saying your River check-call was wrong, necessarily.As a matter of fact pg 170, 171, and 175 of TOP sums up your situation(although I would contest that part of that assumes your opponent was on a draw a decent preportion of the time, which is certainly not the case here)

9T and TJ(and to some extent KJ) are about the only things I can see a tough, thinking player would bet in this situation that you beat. I also believe it is correct to do so. I don't believe this is 10% of his holdings here.

9T, TJ, KJ, The rest of the "junk" beats you.

[MrWookie47]

Qh9h, QhTh, QhJh, Kh9h, KhTh, KhQh...