AQs folding on the flop to a autobet?

Schizo · #1 09-05-2005, 12:30 AM

Villian is a 34.4/9.8 over a mere 61 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero folds

I'm pretty sure I have to do this, but just making sure. My instincts have been wrong before. Villian is most likely autobetting though. So I might be ahead. Or I might have 7-8 outs. BDSD BDFD 2 possible overs.

Buck_65 · #2 09-05-2005, 12:33 AM

I'm for folding. BB's 3-betting range includes many combinations that have you dominated on this flop. Small blind's presence is annoying here as well.

testaaja · #3 09-05-2005, 12:36 AM

You are getting 9:1 odds and you got a backdoor flushdraw, possible 2 overcards etc etc. I would see the turn with this, and if I don't hit, maybe fold. Depending on what BB does.

Jgents · #4 09-05-2005, 12:54 AM

You said yourself you may be ahead (doubt it though) and if not you have possibly 6+ outs. With 10:1 on the flop call, I don't see how you cannot at least call.

Buck_65 · #5 09-05-2005, 01:35 AM

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You said yourself you may be ahead (doubt it though) and if not you have possibly 6+ outs. With 10:1 on the flop call, I don't see how you cannot at least call.

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What do you recommend for the rest of the hand? Fold the turn UI? Call down if you turn a Q?

Jgents · #6 09-05-2005, 01:50 AM

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What do you recommend for the rest of the hand? Fold the turn UI? Call down if you turn a Q?

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Exatcly right. I see BB's 3bet range as 88+, ATs+, KQs+, AKo. This is open to debate. With those stats, I think this is a reasonable range. So Yes, fold UI. Call down if you pick up a draw or pair up. Hero when behind on the flop will probably be a 3-1 underdog on average seeing the turn, but even a turn card like the Qh on average will give him the lead going into the river.

bobbyi · #7 09-05-2005, 01:54 AM

I would definitely fold. If you were closing the action, you could peel, but with a player still behind you (whose check doesn't necessarily mean weakness since he was checking to the raiser expecting him to auto-bet), I'm done here.

Jgents · #8 09-05-2005, 01:58 AM

Right. I was assuming this was HU for some reason... [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

I still like the peel considering the pot size and the fact that we can assing SB any two.

bobbyi · #9 09-05-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I still like the peel considering the pot size and the fact that we can assing SB any two.

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BB's pfr is half of mine and I wouldn't three-bet that many hands here preflop. I think he has AA, KK or AK here very often in which case we are in very bad shape. If he has QQ, we have three outs (plus runner-runner), which is still not that exciting. Sometimes he has a smaller pocket pair and you are in okay shape, but some of those times SB has a king. There just aren't enough profitable times here to make up for all the times you are in terrible shape, and the flop can get raised behind you so your odds aren't as good as they look.

You often basically just have the backdoor flush draw. You ostensibly have a backdoor straight, but if you call the flop and a T or J slides off, are you calling again on the turn with what is probably only a gutshot getting only 6-1? I wouldn't. If you aren't, then your backdoor broadway draw isn't very valuable (the turn is always getting bet, so you basically only make broadway when the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or :T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes off followed by an offsuit T or J respectively).