Call all-in PF w/ QQ when Villain pushed PF w/ AA 5 hands earlier?

[bills217]

First hand at the table, PokerStars $50NL:

Hero ($50 stack) has KK

Villain raises to $2
Hero re-raises to $6
Villain pushes ~$100
Hero calls.

Villain wins w/ AA.

Villain types all-caps in chat: I WOULDA FOLDED IF I WAS HIM

Hand continually discussed in chat by all players at table except Villain until...5 hands later...

Hero ($50 stack) has QQ

Hero raises to $2
MP calls $2
Villain pushes for ~$150

Hero...?

No read other than the information I've disclosed here. Feel free to analyze the first call as well as what to do in the 2nd situation.

[sawseech]

laugh and call again and use the reload trick

[bills217]

bump

[Hattifnatt]

First hand: Good call

Second hand: Fold

[sourbeaver]

Here's the info you have to work with.
Villain pushed 100 over your 6 with AA, and proceeded to tell you (incorrectly, for you and for him) that you should have folded.

This hardly looks like a setup in the hopes of stealing a mere 4$ while risking 150$ a couple of hands later. Without a better read that he is a donk/maniac, I don't think you can expect better than a flip w AK here. I fold.

[rikz]

When facing the move of honor preflop, I ...

... call with kings and aces, but fold with any other hand including queens unless I'm certain that villain is a maniac or on tilt (i.e. he's going all in every hand, and showing down 97o or something when he's called).

FWIW, I usually lose with the kings when I call the MOH because it's almost always aces that I'm up against. I still call, though. I did flop quad kings to beat those aces once, though!

So, to summarize, Hand 1 is good. Hand 2, I'd fold.

[bills217]

Here's my thinking on this:

If he's a solid player, he's not massively overbetting like this, especially on my first hand at the table w/ no read on me...

Since from this I can infer he's not a solid player, can I not also infer he could be pushing with a range of hands?

Then, what are the odds he's dealt AA against my KK, and then 5 hands later, dealt AA or KK against my QQ?

Interested to hear thoughts on this line of thinking.

[Morrek]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my thinking on this:

If he's a solid player, he's not massively overbetting like this, especially on my first hand at the table w/ no read on me...

Since from this I can infer he's not a solid player, can I not also infer he could be pushing with a range of hands?

Then, what are the odds he's dealt AA against my KK, and then 5 hands later, dealt AA or KK against my QQ?

Interested to hear thoughts on this line of thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds for it happening twice in a row is ofcourse very low, but that's not the real question here. It's simple math, if it's 1 in 40 or whatever the first time, then its that exact chance again no matter how many times it has already happened today or last week or whatever. Although it's not exactly the same thing with QQ vs KK/AA as KK vs AA you get the picture.

[aces_dad]

The fact that he got A's five hands ago doesn't influence the odds of him having them this hand.

He overbet the first time and now he's doing it again. Until you see what he's doing it with it's very dangerous to infer he's opened up his push range to steal $4 here. If you see him pushing every 5 hands or so pf, then you can make a stand with those Q's. I don't do it this time.

I'd have to fold QQ here, but I would feel bad about it.

I'd call with the KK.