Will this work?

[RedeemerKing]

I thought of this last year but never really followed up on it.

You start watching the lines early and the lines move as people bet one side more than the other. Since most people lose at sports couldn't you just turn it around

Here is an example

The Braves were a +130 on opening day on the overnight lines. Gametime I saw them as +104. This means that more people are betting the braves and the book needs more people to bet the marlins so they lower the line and make the marlins more attractive. And the marlins won 9-0

Now I know the overnight lines might not be accurate and that 1 big bet either way will affect the line more than 100 small bets will.

The book is telling you which side people are betting on and if most people lose when they bet on sports you can just go opposite.

What do ou think of this? Is it worth researching? Has anyone tried this or something similar to it? Please gimme feedback?

[Paluka]

Most people lose because the cross the spread, not because the bet the wrong direction.

[kelvin474]

It will happen that both bets are -EV sometimes also. Imagine a game that's a total coinflip and Heads is -105 and tails is -105. How you gonna win that?

[calling all cars]

I always thought this was an excellent area for analysis. The fundamental problem, as I see it, is that by the time you've realized where the bettors are going, the line has already been adjusted.

Do have any other thoughts as to a methodology that would work given these constraints?

[BeantownCaller]

[ QUOTE ]
I always thought this was an excellent area for analysis. The fundamental problem, as I see it, is that by the time you've realized where the bettors are going, the line has already been adjusted.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea but if you're betting against the public the line is moving in your favor...there is no problem there.

As with all systems it's not foolproof and probably wouldn't be profitable to play every single game on the other side from the public.

Maybe some hugely publicized games if everyone on TV likes the Rams -14 and analysts are predicting a 30 pt blowout, even if you don't think the pats are gonna win the value might be on their side, and it was, and we were superbowl champs! Ahhhh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]