AK on bubble with no short stack, still sucks!

[kamrann]

Could anyone actually fold this? If I do I'm down to 1600 and its a straight race between the three of us to make the money.

Party Poker $50 + $5, Big Blind is 400 (4 handed)

<font color="#008800">Hero (2070)</font>
UTG (1545)
BTN (1635)
SB (4750)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#CC0000">SB goes all-in for 4750</font>, <font color="#008800">Hero goes all-in for 2070</font>, SB is returned 2680.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>

Total Pot: 4140


I called, he had 65o. I don't own Eastbay's tool, but I did some ICM calculations, and if I did them right, I needed an EV of about 0.63 to call here. AKo just barely makes that against any two, and against tighter ranges drops below.

Now, taking into account ICM's flaws, there are arguments both ways. If I double up, I can be the one doing the bullying, so I'd probably have a slightly higher equity than ICM says. On the other hand, if I fold, I'm in a slightly better situation than the other two short stacks, since I'm on their right so I can attack their blinds without having to get through the big stack.

So, can you really justifiably fold here? I wouldn't have believed it, but ICM seems to say so, unless I buggered my calculations. Thoughts?

[KingDan]

I never make this fold. Ever.

[raptor517]

if you fold this hand you should end your life. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] good call. holla

[Shillx]

You pretty much have to call here eventhough you aren't on the short stack per se. If you have seen him do lots of bullying you just have to go with it. The only time I would fold is if I was unsure what he was pushing with or if he was just sitting back waiting for the small stacks to tangle. Since he pushed with 65o, I'm sure that you had a read that he wasn't waiting around and you acted accordingly. If he is pushing with any pair/ace/king (which is what you want since you dominate all aces and kings) you are gaining a bit over 1% $EV. If he is moving in with any two you are gaining just under 1% $EV.