Step 4 Bubble - Questions for Satellite Experts

Prickly Pete · #1 12-16-2004, 12:39 PM

9 left, 8 get a Step 5 seat, 1 gets Step 4 freeroll.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) converter

Hero (t3305)
UTG (t1100)
UTG+1 (t1768)
MP1 (t3555)
MP2 (t3287)
MP3 (t1590)
CO (t1801)
Button (t1789)
SB (t1805)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t1100 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t1100, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t1000, Hero calls t900.

Flop: (t4400) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets t705 (All-In), Hero folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: (t5105) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t5105) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t5105

Results in white below: 
UTG has 8c 8s (two pair, eights and twos).
SB has Kh Kc (two pair, kings and twos).
Outcome: SB wins t5105. 

Table 2 just started and there are no reads on the utg allin raiser or how the bubble will play in general.

1. Is my preflop call ok or should I be folding my way in?

2. Assume the UTG allin and it folds to me, should I call?

3. While I can think of a few scenarios where SB might benefit from betting on the flop, it still seems highly unlikely to be a good thing for him. Is he insane to be betting here?

Thanks.

edited to show results

adanthar · #2 12-16-2004, 12:46 PM

1)You must fold - you have enough chips to autofold in but not enough to make a 900 chip loss irrelevant;
2)No and it's not close;
3)His all in is terrible.

dmk · #3 12-16-2004, 01:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Is my preflop call ok or should I be folding my way in?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you can fold into the seat, do it. Let someone else bust him. It would suck if the flop was AQ4 and the SB had something like 44 and UTG+1 had QQ. Now you're short-stacked and might not get the seat. Now SB goes all-in, you call, and you are terribly short-stacked. While this is an extreme example, it can happen, and you want to prevent it. Folding is the easiest way, especially since you're like 2nd in chips.
[ QUOTE ]

2. Assume the UTG allin and it folds to me, should I call?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Again, let the other players bust each other. At this point, you could fold 90 hands before you bust. Someones going out before you.
[ QUOTE ]

3. While I can think of a few scenarios where SB might benefit from betting on the flop, it still seems highly unlikely to be a good thing for him. Is he insane to be betting here?

[/ QUOTE ]
There's an all-in and a call already. IMO, he's insane to even be in the hand to begin with.

Prickly Pete · #4 12-16-2004, 01:18 PM

Thanks dmk and adanthar. Your points make complete sense.

One question though

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

3. While I can think of a few scenarios where SB might benefit from betting on the flop, it still seems highly unlikely to be a good thing for him. Is he insane to be betting here?

There's an all-in and a call already. IMO, he's insane to even be in the hand to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should SB really be folding KK here preflop? If UTG doubles up, SB will only have 1700, which is almost smallest on the table. Just curious how I should be thinking about this situation.

schwza · #5 12-16-2004, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
While I can think of a few scenarios where SB might benefit from betting on the flop, it still seems highly unlikely to be a good thing for him. Is he insane to be betting here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if utg+1 loses the hand, the tournament ends. the only way the bet helps SB is if someone else calls, creating a sidepot that SB wins. by my calculation, the odds that the non all-ins will call with a worse hand than KK are zero.

obviously, the risk of making this horrible bet is that you fold out something like AQ, an A hits the board, and utg+1's AJ is good. wouldn't SB feel dumb then.

Myst · #6 12-16-2004, 03:28 PM

Let the smaller stacks bust each other out. You gain nothing by calling here. Folding is the best play.

SossMan · #7 12-16-2004, 04:47 PM

easy preflop fold.

why are you in there? I would fold even if SB folded. I would have to have a much bigger or much smaller stack to be messing around.

His all in on the flop was muy malo.