Tight Play and Long Streaks

[Lexander]

I am curious how the people who make money regularly deal with the long streaks.

I am familiar with probability theory. And if in general I play only 15% of the hands, and fold half of those at the flop, then I am playing only 5% past the flop.

Clearly, with such a small percentage of winnable hands, the distributions can be considerable over the course of 400-500 hands.

What I am curious about is how a person can maintain that long streak of tight play, and when it should be loosened.

For example, last evening I sat for ~150 hands at Party. I played about 20 total. I hit a playable flop about 4 times. I won only one of those. I had AK beaten after it flopped AKT. I wasn't sure how to play that one, and sure enough a Q hit the turn and J3 took it.

Ironically, I won two hands from the BB that got checked out to me.

I won a total of 3 pots, all of which were for minimal value since I only hit a good hand one time and that was in the SB against a single player. I chased one hand with 66 after it made a low straight (not the nuts) that was a pure mistake on my part. All of this is within the bounds of a single evening of randomness.

Now, ever since I began to play this level of tight, I have experienced considerable slowness in winning hands. I was curious about what was a reasonable expectation over the course of a few hundred hands.

I figure that of the 5% of the hands that end up okay, I will get killed by the river/turn on 25% of those, resulting in the need for a very small number of hands to pay off all those antes.

So, what I am curious about is some advice for handling all this randomness, and whether or not I am playing too tight or not.

- Lex

[crockpot]

think of it this way: 5% of the time i will win a big pot, 10% i will lose a small pot, 85% i will lose nothing (except the antes or blinds). and remember that every pot you win should cover at least three or four pots you lose. that should help you out.

it sounds like you're playing about the right amount of hands, but you would need to be more specific to really get an analysis.

[Lexander]

I do feel that the numbers must generally work out.

However, lately I seem to only be winning on those rare flukes or small pots. I am an aggressive raiser in a number of situations, and that rarely thins out the pot, but it does produce some nice big wins.

I play a mix between Jones and S&M, with a tendency to fold things that they aren't both in agreement on. This is a new trend, and ever since it was started I have been on a long and painful streak in ring games.

I am more curious if I should loosen up any at all. I don't play suited connectors much except in late position most of the time. I have a tendency to play low pairs in early position at Party since everybody tends to call, but I am quickly adjusting that because I am getting raised a lot (even at tables with few raisers). I am moving away from playing unsuited big cards, particularly things like K9o and such. Basically, the more I play the less hands I play. I am concerned that might be leading to over-tight play.

Basically, I am fairly close to a 'textbook' player, which I figure right now is probably good since it helps me develop the foundations while I learn all the exceptions.

In all fairness, I do think I have just been unlucky. I have been missing flops about 80% of the time, haven't made a winning straight or flush with much of anything, and have been dealt very few AXs. So essentially I am getting very few of the kind of hands which tend to produce big winners at Party.

- Lex

[Lexander]

Okay, I did an analysis of my starting hand list, and figured I would give it for examination.

This list includes all hands played.

Early Positions:
AA-22,AK-JTs,AQ,AJ,KQ,QJ

I am strongly considering moving AJ and QJ to middle position only. I am also considering moving 77-22 to middle or later. I consider my tendency to play pairs in early position to be a flaw in my game that I am changing.

Middle Positions:
87s-54s (with several callers at a passive table, otherwise these move to late)
JT,ATs,A9s,KJ

I am thinking KJo needs to go by the wayside.

Late Positions:
AXs

My rules to call a raise are much higher. Until very recently, I had not generally reraised though I am adding this to my arsenal.

A lot of these suited connector and low pairs calls are based on the typical calling station game I see at Party. I am steadily requiring more and more players involved and better position to play these. I tend to toss A5-A2s in most cases even in late position.

I tend to try to be aggressive. Basically, I am going for the tight-aggressive play with growing willingness to be tighter. Being a newbie, my aggressive weapons are not sharp.

In general, after the flop, I toss almost every pair that doesn't hit a set unless there are no overcards on a large pair. I try to follow the 'hit it or fold it' rule, and play very, very few middle and low pairs on the flop, and of late don't play if just on overcards. I end up folding a lot of my hands, which I am told is correct. I tend to be aggressive if I flop top pair. I press extremely hard if I hit a top pair with good kicker.

Thoughts and comments are welcome.

- Lex

[crockpot]

these lists are pretty good. i personally don't play QJo or KJo at all except in shorthanded unraised pots in late position. i assume you are in a typical low limit game where the flop% is 45-50 and preflop raising is rare. otherwise you should move small pairs to middle-late position.

[Lexander]

My opinions of QJo and KJo decrease everyday. About the only thing I can say about them anymore is they manage to be part of straights that generate a lot of action when they happen. More and more I find myself folding them, or playing them later and later in the hand. I think I am beginning to understand just how often these hands are dominated.

My view of medium and small pairs is changing of late. I play mostly low limit at Party. I don't consider myself an expert player, and figure that I shouldn't go playing above my bank account. I did that early on enough. I am playing them less and less in early position. My original reason for playing them was they got plenty of calls. But I am beginning to understand the problem of how to play them after a raise.

My biggest problem of late is dealing with a painful streak of bad luck at ring games. My luck at SnG tournaments seems to be completely normal. I played two today and ended up 2nd in both cases. I get good hands, and they win most of the time and lose some of the time. I usually win more than I lose.

But in ring games, it has been a struggle. Some nights it seems that 50% of the time I get killed on the river. Other nights I wonder if I am going to be able to play a hand.

I do know that I make mistakes. And it is the mistakes that end up being most of the problem. I figure I will continue making them but that each day I need to look and find ways to stop making them.

However, with the small number of hand I am playing, the effect of those mistakes is often considerable. What would have been a small gain for the evening becomes a medium loss. Additionally, I am finding it hard to deal with the ugly streaks without tilt. After AA gets beat 3 times in a row, and KK gets beat twice during a session where none of my pairs makes a set I just want to shoot something.

The theory and concept of PosEV makes total sense to me. I totally buy into the need to pick hands with PosEV. What concerns me is how to deal with the fact that playing tight can result in extremely long sessions without winning a pot. I am curious how others deal with this problem, and how to handle it mentally when it happens. I also need to know how to distinguish bad luck from bad play over a short interval.

Thanks for the responses.

- Lex

[crockpot]

while it is likely that you are running into bad cards, you should also realize that you're playing a very high-variance style. even in a quite loose game, a suited connector is not that profitable a hand, but it will add a lot to your swings since you will either be charged for your draw or win a big pot with it.

if your bankroll is running low it may be correct to play much tighter than you normally would. i often do this when i'm on auto-pilot, not looking to take big gambles. just avoid marginal hands and you can greatly decrease your variance without lowering your win rate very much.

[darryl2172]

I am no expert, also a newbie, but I also thought I was playing too tight. I did some studying, but I also now only play in short handed games, pokerroom offers tables with a 5 player max, what I have noticed is that the players at these tables tend to stay put for a while, which gives u an oppurtunity to track there betting habits etc... I have seen a great increase in my winnings since making this adjustment. Obviously the pots arent as large but I win more pots so it balances out.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

For example, last evening I sat for ~150 hands at Party. I played about 20 total. I hit a playable flop about 4 times.

Wild guess is that you may be playing a bit too tight post-flop, but you need to post a few hands to be sure.

Example would be you call 2 limpers in MP with AJo. Only the C/O and blinds call. 6 see the flop which comes T-8-3 rainbow, checked to you, you check and the button bets, blinds fold, and one caller back to you. Are you normally folding in this situation? If so, this is a bit weak-tight. Not only do you have 6 overcard outs, but the pot is offering 8-1 on the call and you may well have the best hand more than 11% of the time as it is.

Again, this scenario is just a wild guess, but if you're playing so tight up front that you're seeing 13% of the flops (20/150), I can't conceive that you wouldn't be able to see the turn for at least one small bet on 3/4 of them.

[MaxPower]

You are just going to have long streaks where you get no cards to play and your good hands don't win. It will happen repeatedly. Honestly, it still demoralizes me, but I try to continue to play well even when it is happening. Think about how much more you would have lost if you loosened your standards.

If you want to win, you have to play tight. On numerous occasions I have gone 5 or 6 hours without winning a pot - it is no fun. You've got to deal with this if you want to win.