Who folds this river? (possibly inane content, but I do have a poll)

So the two pair and set hands that would push the river would not call your push on the turn?
I was not saying that I would check behind or push here. My point is that everyone saying its an autocall on the river might want to look at the turn as well. There is no reason why you have to bet this turn and autocall a push. You guarantee a flush will get max value from you. Lots of different ways to play this. Most of this should be based on reads. If this guy is straight forward I would go ahead and pot the turn and then be willing to fold to the river push. If the guy is extremely aggro I would be willing to check behind on the turn becuase as you said lots of hands are drawing dead here. Open up your thinkin a bit. Nothing in this hand screams out standard play.

He payed 800 on the turn to win 3620 (1200+800+1620) if you call his river push, it is 4.5 to 1. So he has the implied odds if he's against a pair on the turn (4.1 to 1) and you call the river bet. Is a pair willing to call the river? If i did the maths correctly he needs to be called 93% of the time to make it correct.

Against a set he has only 7 real outs, so he's only 5.6 to 1 to make his hand on an unpaired board. He's in big trouble when the non clean outs hit. His call is incorrect, but he doesn't know that.

I believe you have to stick with your reads. if you were trying to extract the maximum value against a draw, was your plan to fold the river?

You didn't show much strenght on the flop so you could have only one pair and he could be making a move on the river maybe with AT, AJ.

It is easy to say that afterwards, but the hd would be easier if you had put more chips in before the river. I see the argument to bet a little more on the turn and maybe on the flop as well. A king could go for the ride as well.

[suckbot]

I guess this is really early in the tournament, so I wouldn't be suprised if this guy is calling with his AK or K-9, then pushes into the flush on a semi-steal. Seen some crazy stuff this early in the tourny.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess this is really early in the tournament, so I wouldn't be suprised if this guy is calling with his AK or K-9, then pushes into the flush on a semi-steal. Seen some crazy stuff this early in the tourny.

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Yes. After I folded I realized with horror that he could of had a hand like KT and was worried about his kicker. Then the river hits and he's not going to fold top pair after all that, so he figures maybe he can represent a flush and get AK to fold.

But on the other hand, I don't see how he can believe I'll fold after my actions up to this point. I've seen this may times, but here it seems more likely that he made a flush and is horrified that I'll check behind (which I was going to do.)

I may have to alway's call in future situations like these, if for no other reason than to put my mind at ease.

Well, I guess this wasn't completely inane.

[yvesaint]

wait, you folded this?

[A_C_Slater]

"You call the river because 2 pair, a smaller set, an overpair, and complete bluffs may also push here."


He would have let me know he had these hands sooner.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
wait, you folded this?

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Yes. I highly doubted the decision, which was the intent of the post. But if I bet the flop and turn and the amount I bet makes drawing to a flush incorrect, but then If he knows I will call his river push when he hits a flush then that means he wasn't making a mistake with his previous calls.

Lower set, two pair, overpair, flopped straight, would most likely have played back at me earlier due to the 2flush flop. It seemed to me he hit a flush here more than 3 to 1 times, therefore, I folded.

[A_C_Slater]

I also realize another reason to call is that by calling and winning I become a well above average stack and put in a better place to finish high. I think my biggest mistake here is making a "cash game fold" in a tournament.

[Bill Smith]

All of this math is questionable to me, since something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has a straight draw as well. He may in fact be getting better than a 4.5:1 shot.

I think a pot sized flop bet followed by a turn push is a better line (if same number of callers). As it went, I think you need to make the cry call, but it certainly isn't an autocall.

[MikeSmith]

smellS like J10, another set or top 2 pair, i have to call