A preflop question

[QTip]

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What about 99. What if he's 16/8 and you have TT?

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I've been focusing on playing mid-pairs a bit more conservitavely. I used to treat 88 and 99 (sometimes lower) like I had TT or JJ. I've not been satisfied with my winrate for those pps. Over the last couple months, I keep pokerstove open during my sessions and just mess with it throughout the day as different scenarios come up. One thing I'm considering more is the type of game that I'm in. It seems that most tags will lighten their raising standards as the game gets tighter. Course, for some it may be the opposite. Against those, perhaps their range can be as solid as AQo, AJs+, TT+, to which even JJ is about even.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
What about 99. What if he's 16/8 and you have TT?

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Some things that I'm not really certain about along these lines are like...

If I were to run a sim on his range, do I have to be 50 or more?

What is position and initiative really worth as far as pushing a non-existant edge. A good example would be your TT against a 16/8 there. TT may be like 45% there. Will the blind money, position and initiative make up for the 5% deficit I have there?

I just don't know how to answer those.

I guess things like this come into play:

Will he call down with an A UI?

Is he a fit or fold?

Is he tricky with semi-bluff c/rs?

What does he think of me?

Probably a bunch of other things I'm missing as well. How low I can go against his range answering these questions...I don't know. I guess after he raises, there are about 3 sb in the pot, and I'm investing 3. On Friday, a 2+2er opened from MP3, and I 3 bet with a pair of 3s with tighties in the blinds. I figured I was probably in the upper 40s there. I'd like to hear more conversation on these lines for sure.

[TStoneMBD]

i made a poll just like this in high stakes where a very tag player raises UTG and you have 99 UTG1. most people seemed to like 3betting but i still think its an easy fold.

[chief444]

I think it's close. I think position and initiative are worth quite a bit against a tight and likely straightforward opponent. So if I expect it to get HU most of the time I'd 3-bet. Depends on the rest of the table as well though. If it's a typical weekend evening crowd I'd coldcall. I have no real issue with a fold.

i am definitly in the minority with the cold call here.. chances are you arent gonna like a non-set flop.. so maybe he has AK or AQ.. you're still ahead preflop.. i would call here and hope to get heads up because 3-bet you invest too much money in the hand, and it also opens you up for a 4-bet from him if hes that strong.

6%! :-/

[Brom]

I voted for fold. One of my main considerations was my position. There's just too many people behind me and I'd hate for it to get 3-bet somewhere down the line.

[BigEndian]

I can't believe so many people are folding. This is an easy cold call for me and I do it regularly and play poker past the flop. I don't think 3-betting is the right play unless you plan on using that as information to maybe make an earlier exit from the hand which has it's merits.

- Jim

[Chief911]

Wow. You guys really think this is such an obvious fold?

Lets assume a few things using the party 15/30 as an example (Because I like to assume):

1. Lets assume that there will be one more cold caller between you and the blinds, and one of the blinds is gonna tag along. This isn't that far fetched, as people LOVE to cold call once its started. Especially those 45/5's.
2. Total pot going to the flop of $135 or so. So, you are obviously getting far from good odds to call preflop if we KNOW that he has AA. But, in situations like this, it can easily be assumed that the final pot value is going to be atleast 10-15BB.
3. You are going to win probably 90% of the 11.8% that you flop a set.

So, you are CC'ing $30 for the 10% chance to win $300+ pot (And many times more than that if somoene really does have AA). While you will contribute probably 1/4th the pot.

It would appear that you would have to think you could build a $400+ pot if you KNEW he had AA, and you KNEW a few people were going to CC behind.

Ok, I'm too lazy to delete this, I'll have to come back later. Maybe I'm swinging away from CC'ing, even though I do exactly that right now.

Nick