10/20 97s

Entity · #1 12-03-2005, 07:38 AM

Here's one I felt weird about.

Loose game at Tulalip. New girl to the table limps UTG. She seems loose and passive. Next guy to act limps. Guy in MP who is generally loose preflop (probably a 50/7/1), but not particularly passive, limps. I limp OTB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Seth, a 2+2er, raises from the SB. BB calls and so do the rest of us. 6 to the flop for 12SB.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Mixed blessing. Seth bets, BB folds, UTG calls, other limper calls, MP now raises, I call, Seth calls, UTG calls, other limper folds. MP would not raise here without an Ace or possibly a very strong draw.

The turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Seth checks, UTG checks, MP bets, I call, Seth calls, UTG calls.

The river is the 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Seth checks, UTG checks, MP bets, I call...

#2 12-03-2005, 08:10 AM

So the only hands that beat you on the turn are AK (6), AA (1), KK (3), JJ(3), AJ(6) or the unlikely higher flush. SB could have raised pre-flop with a number of hands: AK, AQ, AJs, KQ, maybe even KJs, or pairs AA-88. MP limped preflop, so of the hands that could beat you, only AJ seems possible. He also raised on the flop with 3 people already playing, so a higher flush in highly unlikely (with a paired board cutting into his odds if he hits it). Would SB have raised preflop with a hand like QTs or T9s? Maybe, but I doubt it. So you almost certainly aren't up against a higher flush. SB probably has trips or two pair, so you're ahead of him. MP might have a boat, but KJ seems like the only reasonable possibility for that (based on his preflop play). There's a good chance both he and SB have trip aces.

I don't think raising the turn is a good idea. If you get re-raised you'd probably have to fold (and you've likely paid the same as it would have cost to see a showdown). If you're ahead, there's a good chance you scare away SB, and you proably shouldn't be that concerned about giving away a cheap club on the river to a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. After all, there are only two clubs that would beat your flush.

On the river you should just call and hope for an overcall from the SB.

Now on the river, if you were sitting between SB and MP, you could consider check-raising with your flush after SB acts. It might be marginally profitable, but you'd have to consider folding to a re-raise, which wouldn't be good for your table image in most instances.

I think you played fine, based on the fact that there were two people in the pot. Heads up, I would have been more aggressive, but here you should just hope for an overcall since giving a cheap card isn't likely to hurt you, and there's a chance you're already beaten.

Dazarath · #3 12-03-2005, 09:04 AM

I would fold to the flop raise. In the case where you have a live draw, you likely have only 7-8 outs, depending on how many A's are out. Even when you do turn your flush, a single A has 10 outs to a full house redraw. If he has a high club, well, then you're trying to dodge a third of the deck. The probability of someone having an ace plus the probability that someone may have a higher flush draw, as well as the slight probability the 2+2er already has a boat make this a fold on the flop, IMO.

thejameser · #4 12-03-2005, 10:12 AM

i would not like the situation but i'm calling down. you have a middle strength flush against an unlikely higher flush(only the Qc or 10c would make a higher flush) and a possible boat, but it is a big pot. you said MP was not particularly passive so he would likely play trips this way(would he limp AxQc/10c?). he would have raised/reraised preflop with AK, KK, or AA. i think you played fine, but if the 2+2er or UTG goes wild on the river will you call one more?(if it is two back two us we are almost certainly beat i would think).

bernie · #5 12-03-2005, 10:41 AM

If I'm seeing the river, I'm raising this turn. Your hand isn't strong enough to just let it slide by. You have to make any draw out there pay to draw out on you at this point.

Given how strong that turn raise would look coming from you, I could probably safely fold to a 3 bet. If unsure, call it out.

b

bernie · #6 12-03-2005, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but here you should just hope for an overcall since giving a cheap card isn't likely to hurt you,

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't likely to hurt you? You have a possible FH draw along with the redraw to the flush to beat you in about a 10BB pot. That's more than enough reason to raise here.

You should definitely be concerned about giving a cheap card here to beat you on the river in this big of a multiway pot if you're ahead.

b

QTip · #7 12-03-2005, 12:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm seeing the river, I'm raising this turn. Your hand isn't strong enough to just let it slide by. You have to make any draw out there pay to draw out on you at this point.

Given how strong that turn raise would look coming from you, I could probably safely fold to a 3 bet. If unsure, call it out.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this as well. You probably have the best hand on the turn and need to make it expensive as you can for others to continue.

krishanleong · #8 12-03-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold to the flop raise. In the case where you have a live draw, you likely have only 7-8 outs, depending on how many A's are out. Even when you do turn your flush, a single A has 10 outs to a full house redraw. If he has a high club, well, then you're trying to dodge a third of the deck. The probability of someone having an ace plus the probability that someone may have a higher flush draw, as well as the slight probability the 2+2er already has a boat make this a fold on the flop, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this analysis is solid. I've never thought about folding a flush draw on the flop because I always think about having implied odds on big bet streets. If there ever was an example of weak implied odds with a flush, this is it.

That said I think you have to raise the turn. One card flushes and acec will call and call again on the river. It's easy to check/fold/be careful if the river double pairs or goes 4 flush. Getting 3-bet sucks but I think calling down would still be +EV because you can get 3-bet by trip aces once in a while.

Krishan

QTip · #9 12-03-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If there ever was an example of weak implied odds with a flush, this is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. I'm not even considering implied odds as much as I'm realizing that I'm getting 8:1 immediate odds. IMO, folding this is yucky the way I'm thinking now. Folding is the worst of the 3 options imo.

Entity · #10 12-03-2005, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm seeing the river, I'm raising this turn. Your hand isn't strong enough to just let it slide by. You have to make any draw out there pay to draw out on you at this point.

Given how strong that turn raise would look coming from you, I could probably safely fold to a 3 bet. If unsure, call it out.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

You play good. I froze up but I'm pretty positive now (I was unfortunately up for about 19 or 20 hours by the time I played this hand) I should have raised the turn. I have to fold to a checkraise by Seth but I think I have to raise the turn given that he's drawing to 9 outs a fair amount of the time but I may be able to get him to fear being sandwiched and fold.

I think given the potsize and the relative likelihood of my flush draw being good against MP's range of flop raises (mostly Ax, and since he had previously raised AK preflop I think he's got trips far more often than a boat) I have to call the flop, but I need to protect my hand on the turn.

Rob