2/5NL live - JTs

I honestly think the money you can make by keeping the callers outweighs the money you make on the off chance that you beat this guy heads up.

[jhall23]

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I honestly think the money you can make by keeping the callers outweighs the $35 you make on the off chance that you beat this guy heads up.

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The key point of why this is good is because it is not 35$ you are making. There is a freaking huge pile of dead money in this pot. Swolfe increase his chances of winning by getting it HU. Even if he has only 8 outs (about 30% to win by the river) he has a huge overlay.

[Bco1/75]

Why do you want to drive out more money with the nut draw? You still have to show down aginst the WAG2? Thus it only take a K or any pocket pair to beat you. So you miss your draw and you are probally allready beat. You hit your draw and EV increases significantly. EV of pushing out to get heads up with a draw seems pretty low. Any one else care to comment on this? Agree or Disagree?

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Basically, whether you call or reraise, you're investing that $35. However, by raising, you negate the opportunity to make more money when you hit but yet your chances of winning the $35 doesn't increase.

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by isolating i increase my chances of winning the hand. i'm not necessarily behind the WAG (one hand he reraised PF with 32o and overbet pushed a flop and hit running dueces to take it down)...but raising here pushes out the other guys who may have a weak Q or a small/mid pocket pair.

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right so if your goal is to win the most pots, then you have the correct line (because this cleans up your J and Q outs). If your goal is to make the most money, I think I take 6 less outs for the possibility that someone else has AK and a K comes and you stack him.

In other words here, what is more +EV. I think with WAG range, if you isolate with him you probably make money here over the long run, but if you keep everyone in, i think you make more money over the long run. Not sure, it is a gut feeling.

My point is, to beat WAG heads up, you are using your 6 outs (a J or a T), and even those outs might not be good if he has an overpair or a queen. So your chance of beating him is relatively low, UNLESS you make your straight.

Then, if you're counting on making your straight to win all the dead money, then it makes sense to just call and not raise.

[swolfe]

maybe someone with poker stove can do the math and show my equity on the flop when against one guy with a completely random hand vs three players, one withg a random hand and two players with say low pairs or overs.

i don't mind if both call because my EV with just straight outs is slightly positive, but my pot equity is a lot less.

the final pot with both of those guys folding was $325. my equity against his exact hand is 54% or $175, but against his full range, i think my equity is higher.

say i just call, the pot is still $325, but the other guys are still in the hand and my pot equity is only probably around 36%. if i let them hang out and the turn blanks, then my equity drops to less than 20%.

there's some merit to calling and trying to make more money from them if i hit, but i don't think they have good enough hands that i can seriously see getting paid off. i need to play it strong now, while i have an edge.

My point is, I don't believe its correct to count your straight draw when dealing with the HU situation. Because if you hit your straight draw, yes you will win, but it would have been more profitable to do it with callers. Therefore, when calculating your chance to win, you should ignore it.

You should only be analysing the likelihood that a J or T will win HU. If that likelihood is high, then I don't mind the play. If it is low, then I don't like it.

[wdeadwyler]

I definately think Isolation is the right play here. Even if villain has AA, his play is plus EV if he can drive the other players out, as he has a HUGE dead money overlay. By getting it heads up he increases his chance to win.

Furthermore, if he doesnt isolate, THEN hits his str8, who is gonna pay him off? I doubt either of these check callers has anything, and they will just fold when he makes it, so he might as well make them fold now so he can contest the pot HU.

[rachelwxm]

I don't like this play. Here is why:
On flop folding 35 is not an option, so you either call or raise to isolate. What are the pro and cons?

raise:
you have some chance to push them off weak Q, cleaning up some of your outs. But what are they? You said the allin guy is pretty wild, so you can win unimproved if he has two lower cards, but chances are he has one card higher than Q or has some small pair. Assuming those two guy are passive (this depends on your read) so you can get to river cheap. So your str8 outs are always clean. So by raising to isolate, you risk allot if they called you since you are never ahead if you get called and they allow you to draw to str8 cheap. So the added outs (maybe 6 more J and T since you can rarely win UI even he is wild) are certainly not worth the trouble of the risk you might get called as a dog.

call:
With all the above plus your hand is well disguised and will certainly get paid if you hit your str8 outs. You might or might not give up your JT outs by calling.

so to sum up,
here is your outs:

if you raise and they all fold:
main pot (str8 + J or T) +some rare chance you can win UI

if you call
main pot (str8)
side pot (str8)

Obviously I make some assumptions may or may not be realistic here.