Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?

FreakDaddy · #1 11-23-2005, 01:40 AM

Welcome to the table. Second hand. My only thinking is, if someone has the flush here, why raise so much? Even if it's a baby flush it seems a little large in comparison to the money put in and pot size. I have a strong feeling I'm ahead to K or J with a possible high heart like AJ, KQ. Set of 44's is also possible of course, but seems more unlikely(cold call a mini-bet with players still to act on that board?) So would you just dump this? There's still a player left to act that cold called my raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($39.40)
BB ($18.48)
UTG ($35.35)
UTG+1 ($16.05)
MP1 ($49.30)
MP2 ($27.45)
Hero ($24.75)
CO ($19.20)
Button ($11.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB folds, UTG+1 bets $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2.5, Button calls $2.50, UTG+1 folds, MP2 raises to $20, Hero calls $22 (All-In), Button folds, MP2 calls $4.50.

Turn: ($53.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($53.10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $53.10

#2 11-23-2005, 01:43 AM

looks to me like your the dog.

beavens · #3 11-23-2005, 01:44 AM

i like it a lot until i see the 4 flush on the river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

FreakDaddy · #4 11-23-2005, 01:46 AM

What's your reasoning?

beavens · #5 11-23-2005, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What's your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

who?

FreakDaddy · #6 11-23-2005, 01:54 AM

If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

beavens · #7 11-23-2005, 01:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though

FreakDaddy · #8 11-23-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you believe, but what about the sequence of play indicates this to you?

beavens · #9 11-23-2005, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you believe, but what about the sequence of play indicates this to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

because when there is a monotone flop and someone is holding Ax, where 'x' is the suite, then you will definitely see them become overly aggro with it hoping to hit the flush by the river and get paid off.

#10 11-23-2005, 02:08 AM

If villan is able to 3bet a raiser and a caller with one pair, he is a horrible donk but you dont see this as often enough to make this call correct. I believe with this action either has set/flush draw, or possibly even the same hand. It is again possible hes making this move with Ahx but again it wont happen offten enough to make this call correct.