The ol' river value bet type thread

[Aviston]

CO is 41/2/1 over 88 hands.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

River: (9.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ...?

Is this a value bet on the river? Or should I check/call this giving him a chance to bet the hand he liked on the flop and not giving him a chance to raise if that hand included a J?

[JaBlue]

Do you really think your hand is best on the river? What do you put him on? Q10 and 1010-44?

I also think, that you are behind. My question is, if you even should call a river bet here? Answers welcome!

[Aviston]

I'm curious, what makes you think I'm behind?

His TAF isn't too passive considering his VP$IP. I think I could call a river bet because there's quite a few hands he might bet here if I check on the river.

check call you can beat QT KT T9 and 2 of those hands wont bet or call a bet on the river anyway.

not a value situation here, too many hands beat you since the flush came on the turn and the J paired.

check raising the turn was pretty gutsy since you really only beat a J (wich isnt likely due to the flop raise) or QT.

[Aviston]

[ QUOTE ]
check raising the turn was pretty gutsy since you really only beat a J (wich isnt likely due to the flop raise) or QT.

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt that he very well could be raising the turn with either a Q or a J. Therefore, on the turn I felt that I could have the best hand. If he was on the flush draw, I still held the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a redraw to the second nuts.

i dont think many ppl are raising a J on the flop unless they are in tthe lag category.

what Q kicker do you beat. i guess Q9 QT.

i try to recognoze the strgnth of my hand and play accordingly (as miller teaches some top pairs are worth betting and raising and some are not).

if you were to 3 bet the flop and lead the turn, then he raises with his made flush ...you would pay only 2 big bets when you are way behind. by check raising you are gonna pay 3 big bets.

i also like to stay aggro throught the hand. so if you were to raise preflop and 3 bet the flop he is gonna need a nice hand to raise you on the expensive turn and river. this pressure saves me dough in the long run i believe.

[TheHammer24]

I don't like the turn check raise at all. What are you going to do if he three bets you? You've now paid 3 bets instead of one for your flush draw. Sure you may have the best hand, but that doesn't make the play correct. I just call down after the flop raise considering his stats. I probably check call the river. I never trust 80% VPIP for one bet on the river when I have top pair. Lets not forget Hero beats a lot of QX hands too. 80% is freaking high.

[bholdr]

This kind of situation is perfect for a check-call, imo, for several reasons:

A: you don't wanna have to deal with a raise
B: you may be beat, but the pot is big enough to require a call if he bets
C: if you do have the winning hand, it's a good situation too try to induce a bluff

I would've three bet on the flop, though.

[benwood]

I think I would rather donk him on the turn than check to him. I don't want to let him take a free card id he was raising on a straight draw or a J. I like the check call on the river myself, too.