Push or Wait?

[bobbycharles]

PokerStars $3R Qualifier to $500,000 Tourney.
Top 33 win a seat. About 50 left.

Blinds are 1500/3000

Hero Big Blind T27,000; Villain Small Blind T56,000.
Read on Villain is he's not a bad player...slightly LAGish at this point. Has stolen a few blinds when presented with the opportunity. Got lucky with a multiway all in to get where he is.

Folds all around to Villain in SB who makes it 24000 to play.
Hero holding AT offsuit.

Question: Push or Fold?

Help me through the thought process. To me, it's an easy push as he's likely trying to steal. While I see AT pushed in this situation often, is it strong enough in reality? Range of hands to go against are any pair, any broadway, suited medium connectors and maybe Ax. What's my move?

[qbler]

In my mind it hinges on what you think his overbet means. Generally a steal attempt is 3-4xBB but here he's put you just about all in, making your only options calling and folding (since call and push are equivalent here). He could be putting you to the test with any 2, in which case you'd call in a heartbeat, or he could be trying to fool you into calling his monster. I probably fold here and wait for a spot where I can dictate the action a little more, if nothing else.

[bobbycharles]

My thoughts pretty much exactly, except, unfortunately AFTER the fact. My read was correct in that he was trying a steal with A7. My AT had him dominated but he flopped his 7.
In retrospect, I think in the same situation, I'll choose to go with a stronger hand.

[SoBeDude]

Push. Don't overthink it. you have 9 BBs, you have a solid hand against someone you described as a bit overly aggressive.

His range of hands to make that bet with is pretty wide. You made a good call and he got lucky. that's poker.

Scott

[einbert]

Pretty easy push IMO.

You have an equity edge versus the range of almost any player here, and you need chips. There's nothing else to it.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
In retrospect, I think in the same situation, I'll choose to go with a stronger hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time swap out your ten for another ace. That should do the trick.

[KyleM]

[ QUOTE ]
Push. Don't overthink it. you have 9 BBs, you have a solid hand against someone you described as a bit overly aggressive.

His range of hands to make that bet with is pretty wide. You made a good call and he got lucky. that's poker.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

[bobbycharles]

Ok, then help me with the math.

I put him in a range of any pair, Ax, to any broadway and possibly suited connectors. I'm an underdog to all but the connectors and A9 down.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, then help me with the math.

I put him in a range of any pair, Ax, to any broadway and possibly suited connectors. I'm an underdog to all but the connectors and A9 down.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,465,630,976 games 16.703 secs 506,832,962 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 42.7694 % [ 00.40 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K7o, QJo-Q8o, JTo }
Hand 2: 57.2306 % [ 00.54 00.03 ] { ATo }


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a pretty reasonable range, it could be somewhat wider or somewhat tighter depending on your opponent. As you can see you are almost a 3-2 favorite to double up here. If you add more SC hands, your edge becomes somewhat greater.

You're 17 from the money with 9BB, and you have a (somewhat) long shot at getting a stack. I think it is very very unlikely that you will see a better situation than this one, but regardless of that fact this situation is so +EV that you absolutely must take it, IMO.

How are you an underdog to any broadway? You are a heavy favorite against KT, QT, and JT and have a pretty big edge over KQ, KJ, and QJ.

[bobbycharles]

You're right....typo on the broadway.

Thanks for doing the math and the great feedback. I'm going to check out pokerstove. (I made a D in statistics in college, so I need all the help I can get ... LOL)