Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE

[2005]

Villain in the hand is Aaron Katz. He limps from UTG and I limp on the button for 400 with K9o. I have 20-25k in chips and Aaron has me covered. Both blinds are very passive, so I wasn't worried about it getting raised behind me. Flop is K57 with 2 diamonds. Checked to me, I bet 950, both blinds fold, and Aaron calls. Turn is the 3s, putting 2 spades out there. Aaron checks, I bet 2300, he check raises for 4500 more. I call. River is the 9d, He bets 10,000, I call. Comments?

[whiskeytown]

I think he's got a smaller two pair - I'd make the call - he's not playing to me like he's made a flush -

RB

[DemonDeac]

i dont think he'd open limp with a suited ace unless it was a strong ace, which i think would ask for an open raise.
i think im calling this. l
ooks like maybe hes got kings with a missed spade draw or a suited connector of spades, but i cant see that being limped in EP (although u did say the blinds were passive so i assume table was a lil passive too, making him able to get away with it)
nonetheless, i have no idea who Katz is and how he plays, but i still like the call

[kuro]

My biggest question is why not fold the turn? You've got tpwk and have shown strength and now get check-raised. Villain likely has tp with a better kicker,two pair, a set or maybe even the straight. Even if your hand improves you can't bet it with much confidence and aren't likely to get called by a hand that you beat.

[Sluss]

I like it. I'd say a spade suited conector 78, 89 something that looks like a good draw on the flop a great draw on the turn and crap, hope he folds on the river giving me credit for a flush.

If you have 20k I would have just put in my case 2000 in on the river.

[Bataglin]

[ QUOTE ]

If you have 20k I would have just put in my case 2000 in on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, that is pretty pointless. If hero wins the hand, the 2k extra he gets is insignificant. But the 2k he saves if he looses will still leave him in the game with 5BB, instead of joining the railbirds.

I don't know Aaron Katz, and action in this hand is obviously player dependant. In general, I will say it is a huge risk for hero to run into a set in this situation.

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say a spade suited conector 78, 89 something that looks like a good draw on the flop a great draw on the turn and crap, hope he folds on the river giving me credit for a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking this, but would Katz limp with this UTG. thats damn early with a suited connector with teh rest of the table to act. depends on what type of player he is, but not many do this UTG.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest question is why not fold the turn? You've got tpwk and have shown strength and now get check-raised. Villain likely has tp with a better kicker,two pair, a set or maybe even the straight. Even if your hand improves you can't bet it with much confidence and aren't likely to get called by a hand that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree.

given that you know his name, i'm guessing you have some opinion of villain's play?

[KKsuited]

smells like a small set to me, 55 or 33. But you gave his name so you probably know his play better than me. He may have limp with small suited connectors and hit 2 of them, thus your 2 pair is good.

I'd fold.

[DonT77]

On the flop there is 1600 in the pot. It is checked to Gavin and he bets 950. When Gavin is called by UTG, I would say that UTG either has a diamond draw, a K himself, or setting him up for a bluff later with a set or AA. When a 3 comes out on the turn, Gavin is check-raised. Kind of seems risky that a guy would be check-raising on the turn in this spot on a flush draw. (Right now, the nuts would be 46 - unlikely given that this hand was played UTG so I would probably dismiss it.) So most likely UTG either has a K, AA or maybe hit a set with 55 or 77. On the river a 9 of diamonds comes and UTG bets 10K. If he was on the flush draw, he just hit. It is 10K to call to win 22100. So Gavin was getting 2.2 to 1. Now let's look at the range of hands and probabilities for UTG (my best estimate):

Set - 25% (the betting action sure resembles a slow-played flopped set)
Pair of Ks - 20% (He might limp with AK, KQ; KJ or worse probably fold, but with AK or KQ wouldn't you bet out the flop in an un-raised pot against 3 opponents facing a flush draw?)
Flush - 20% (sure doesn’t seem likely)
AA - 20% (this is PL, so UTG would likely limp here with AA hoping to re-raise but was never given the opportunity – then he checked the flop to see if he could trap money in the pot – a debatable play with 2 suited cards on board facing 3 opponents)
Straight - 5% (very unlikely)
Smaller 2 pair - 5% (very unlikely)
All out Bluff - 5% (very unlikely)

Now let's do the math:
(0 x .25) + (1 x .2) + (0 x .2) + (1 x .2) + (0 x .05) + (1 x .05) + (1 x .05) = 0.50

Thus I give Gavin a 50% chance of winning the pot. The pot is 2.2 to 1 so I think the river call is probably correct.

I do think that Gavin's move is on the turn is questionable however. When Gavin got called on the flop he had to think that his opponent either had a higher K, a set/AA, or an unlikely flush draw. Most of that range of hands has him beat.