Value bet on river... PLO $100- metagame considerations in effect?

[bholdr]

I have been very LAGgy so far at this table. previously, I made a nut heart flush on the river, and after it was checked to me, I made a (reckless)pot-size bet which got (stupidly) called by the second-nuts, who obviously thought i was trying to steal the pot (i have been known to do that a bit. heh), and i pulled a $60 pot. The table let him have it:

"call without nuts?!? LMAO, fish!", and so on. (bear with me...)

and about ten hands later, a strangely simaler situation comes up:


I'd like comments on all streets...

I am on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

folds to MP, who raises to $3, two LP players call, I call- their stacks are all around $120-140, i have everyone in the hand covered with about $170. (how's that call, btw? good/no good?)

Pot is @$13

Flop comes out 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4

...giving me a straight draw and a K-flush draw. the MP player bet out $10, LP calls, other LP folds, I call

pot @$42 to the turn, which is an offsuit 5

MP bets $20, LP calls, and I call, too... pot is @$102

...and the river is my money card, the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and they check it to me. SO: i am in the same situation that i was just in, and they're probably thinking the same thing... and i wonder: should make a little value bet or just pot it like last time and hope for another loose call?

[Marnixvdb]

you preflop call is ok, since you have button etc.

on river, i'd valuebet. This around the 2nd nuts seems much less likely, since a Q high draw could not have known it was drawing to the 2nd in stead of 3rd nuts. I do not see many hands they would call a potbet with, certainly not if the whole table, as you say, has been berating each other for callin on river without the nuts. Just make it look weak, try and extract value.

Marnix

The call pre-flop is really loose. The 6 in your hand is almost completely useless, so you are effectively playing with a top gapped 3 card hand. Yuck!

The flop is decent for you, but not great. You have 7 nut outs and 7 non-nut flush outs if K-high is good. The call by the opponent in front of you likely means that some of your outs are either gone or will only be good for a split.

The turn bet by MP seems kind of weak, as is the call, especially given the draw heavy board and the fact that the idiot straight hit. Potting it here would be an interesting play, as you might be able to pick up the pot or at least force out the nut flush draw, thereby opening up a lot more potential outs for you. Anyways, I digress.

On the river, you hit the miracle card. A pot size bets puts your opponents all-in and is highly unlikely to be called. A weak bet, like 1/4 to 1/3 the pot might pull in a weak flush. That being said, a lot of it depends on what type of bet you usually try to steal with.

Just my 2 cents, which is probably worth a lot less than 2 cents.

[bholdr]

[ QUOTE ]
on river, i'd valuebet. This around the 2nd nuts seems much less likely, since a Q high draw could not have known it was drawing to the 2nd in stead of 3rd nuts. I do not see many hands they would call a potbet with, certainly not if the whole table, as you say, has been berating each other for callin on river without the nuts. Just make it look weak, try and extract value.

[/ QUOTE ]

i suppose i knw that. yeah... i bet the pot, they folded. If the guy hadn't berated the earlier caller, i may have gotten a call, i think, but nobody wants to look THAT bad. i was wondering if they might see a repeat of my earlier move as a steal... like "no way he made the nuts AGAIN and did the EXACT same thing" also, it was pretty damn loose and i know they see me as LAG... oh well.. ya live, ya learn.

How much to value bet then? any value in betting really small and trying to induce a bluff? I'd think about $30- such that a non-nut flush would call, maybe the straight, too... hmmm?

[beset7]

I'd raise the flop. Good luck getting much action onces you get there.

[Marnixvdb]

[ QUOTE ]


How much to value bet then? any value in betting really small and trying to induce a bluff? I'd think about $30- such that a non-nut flush would call, maybe the straight, too... hmmm?

[/ QUOTE ]

You will hardly ever induce a bluff since action was multiway until river - but who knows! I wouldnt count on it though and simply valuebet somewhere between 1/5 and 1/3 of the pot... so yeah about $30 would be right, maybe a bit less.

gl, Marnix

[Wheatsauce]

Preflop- Fold

Flop- I would raise here more often than not. Depends on the players that are in the hand. Will MP only lead out with a set here, or does he often make continuation bets when he raises pf? Will the caller call with just the nut flush draw and a pair? I would think that as long as MP is not super tight with his bets even after he has raised pf, that you could take the pot right here with a big raise.

Turn- I think calling is the only option here

River- I would bet a little more than half the pot. They just saw that you would bet the pot with the nuts, so they would be less likely to try to pick off a bluff because of the big bet, and more likely to try to pick off a bluff with a smaller bet.